US stocks benefit when rates rise with growth because earnings outpace the drag from higher discount rates. Such periods have historically been very bullish, unlike inflation-led rate rises amid slowing growth. Since fall 2025 the 10-year yield rose from 4.1% to 5.1% while nominal GDP growth accelerated to 6.6%, faster than rates. Being long offers better risk/reward; high oil prices due to the war are the remaining inflation pressure, and an end to the war would improve the setup further. x.com 

Faster-than-expected US growth is encouraging for stocks, though inflation remains elevated. Q3 GDP rose 3.4% versus 3.2% expected, while the GDP price index rose 2.2% versus 3.2% forecast; PCE inflation matched expectations. x.com 

US stocks face a potentially bigger selloff as rising inflation compounds concerns about AI spending. PCE inflation reached a four-month high of 3.6%, increasing pressure on the Fed to raise rates; Alphabet shares fell after disappointing earnings, slowing ad growth and more than $51 billion of quarterly capital investment. x.com 

US large caps are about to make another all-time high because weak jobs numbers rule out Fed hikes and have changed the rate path. The data looks bearish but is bullish for that reason. More broadly, stocks have real underlying fundamentals, and their gains have largely been justified by record growth and earnings, though there will still be booms and busts. x.com  x.com 

Far less inflated valuations and significant AI earnings make US equities unlike the dot-com market top. AI/SI spending may still be overexuberant. Rates and yields have returned to historical averages; more oil through the Strait of Hormuz and from OPEC and Russia should lower oil and inflation. The market may not have bottomed yet, but falling yields, steady rates and the midterms passing should let it climb the wall of worry. x.com  x.com  x.com 

US equities look vulnerable to a significant correction before another sustainable rally: 3.4% inflation, roughly $100 Brent, a 5.2% 10-year yield and just 29K new September jobs contrast with fresh index highs, while the Magnificent 7 make up 34.9% of the S&P 500. Strong AI earnings expectations and liquidity could keep shares elevated longer than expected. x.com 

US large-cap stocks broke above 7,800 for the first time mainly because rate-hike fears eased, and the setup stays bullish while rates and earnings cooperate. Payrolls fell 23K versus +83K expected, CPI held at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core, and September hike odds fell from ~50% to ~35%, which matters with stock-yield correlation near its most negative since 1996. Earnings are tracking ~28% growth, but leadership is narrow; oil near $81, Hormuz risk and a shrinking workforce are cracks to watch. … Show more

US large-cap stocks are rising because inflation is cooling, which lets Fed Chair Warsh hold steady if Friday's jobs data cooperates. Per @wallstengine, core PCE rose 3.0% year over year versus 3.3% expected and headline PCE 3.4% versus 3.7%, while Q2 GDP came in at 2.2% versus 1.5%. x.com 

The 10-year yield above 5% limits how far the US equity rally can stretch, even as stocks shrugged off the Fed hold. Two policymakers wanted a hike, the 10-year rose to about 5.04%, and bonds sold while all four major indices closed higher. Rates need to cool for the rally to extend. x.com 

Fed hiking-cycle history gives the S&P 500 another favorable setup alongside post-midterm seasonality. The index rose in all seven completed multi-meeting hiking cycles since 1983, averaging about 10%; it also rose 12 months after the final hike in seven of eight cases, averaging about 20%. Along with the 19/19 post-midterm 12-month and 21/21 post-midterm November-to-June records, these streaks lining up in 2026 are very hard to ignore, though history guarantees nothing. x.com