Matthew Tuttle
CEO & CIO of Tuttle Capital Management, Publisher of Daily H.E.A.T.
Rocket Lab's $8 billion purchase of Iridium creates the Pentagon's preferred SpaceX alternative that actually wins contracts. Combining launch capability with Iridium's legacy low-Earth-orbit constellation and Pentagon relationships is the real story behind the deal, which @lorengrush covers. The boring space trade outperforms. x.com
Iridium rallied 181% this year as a stand-in for private SpaceX, not on fundamentals, and SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO now exposes it to repricing. Its OEBITDA and revenue guidance are flat, and the stock at $50 sits above the $39 analyst target. When the benchmark goes public, substitutes that only filled a gap get repriced, so the proxy is a sell. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Rocket Lab's growing Space Systems business positions it to provide more than launches for the space economy. It generated $189.5M in Q2, 81% of revenue; if its pending Iridium acquisition closes, it would gain a global satellite communications network. At about $51, this is one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in the space sector over 3-5 years, provided it keeps executing. Neutron's launch has slipped to 2027, and execution risks remain. x.com x.com x.com
Rocket Lab's roughly $8B Iridium purchase changes what it is: it now owns the only global satellite network and the spectrum under it, so it can design, build, launch and operate under one roof. The deal bolts about $872M of revenue at a 57% margin onto a story that was mostly backlog. The rocket gets headlines; the network is the toll. x.com
Rocket Lab's 58% drop from its high on the Iridium deal financing is the entry for a five-year hold. The $8B Iridium acquisition adds a 66-satellite constellation with over $870M of annual revenue, turning a launch company into an end-to-end space business. Revenue grew 62% to $234M last quarter, backlog rose 137% to $2.36B with a record 90+ launches booked, Electron is 13 for 13 this year, and Neutron is targeted for the pad in Q4. x.com
Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium is the bold move management should make with a premium equity currency, buying an attractive satcom platform. It paid over 2x the per-MHz price of the EchoStar and Globalstar deals for Iridium's L-band spectrum, but gains a brand, commercial and government customers and a profitable business. Revenue roughly doubles, cutting the 2027 revenue multiple from about 37x to 25x. The valuation is still spicy and assumes execution on Neutron, satcom and integrations. … Show more
Iridium's L-band spectrum, PNT and acquired Aireon still have substantial value, despite stalled growth and rising leverage. Third-quarter revenue rose 8% to $245.7 million and subscribers grew 6%; reported net income nearly tripled to $106.9 million, with the attached results attributing much of that gain to the Aireon acquisition. x.com
Rocket Lab's record Q2 and Iridium deal show it becoming an end-to-end space and defense platform that can capture more value than a launch-only company. Q2 revenue hit a record $234M, up 62%, and backlog a record $2.36B after over $1B of new contracts. Iridium adds over $870M of annual L-band revenue tied to government and enterprise. Launch revenue fell 30% sequentially largely because more HASTE defense work is recognized over time; Mynaric integration weighs on near-term margins. x.com
Rocket Lab's Iridium deal should be great for the company if it maintains Iridium's revenue and takes out some costs. A pro forma analysis on consensus estimates shows Iridium improves Rocket Lab's margins and profitability in exchange for slower top-line growth. Per the proxy, Street consensus appears to have baked in and discounted Iridium's projections including Aireon, though the pro forma figures exclude the $367M paid to NAV Canada. x.com x.com
Rocket Lab's defense contracts and backlog position it to benefit from national-security spending. Its $2.36B backlog includes over 100 booked launches, with an $816M SDA satellite deal and a $266M Space Force HASTE deal for hypersonic testing. Despite the Neutron delay, its $36B valuation offers one of the space sector's best risk-reward setups: exposure to the same defense and space-infrastructure trend as SpaceX at a fraction of its valuation. Rocket Lab is headed above $100. x.com
Rocket Lab is underestimated as a launch company when it is building a broader space infrastructure business, where satellites, components, spacecraft systems and national-security demand could matter as much as launches. It just signed its largest commercial Electron deal by mission count, 20 launches for Synspective from 2028 to 2031, per Wall St Engine, pushing its launch backlog above 100 missions. x.com
Rocket Lab's rapid-response launches matter more as orbital threats grow, and unbid military missions expose a launch crunch. LeoLabs said Russia's Cosmos 2612 came within about 500 meters of ICEYE-X36. In Victus Haze, Rocket Lab built the Puma target and launched it on Electron with 16 hours 42 minutes' notice. Per Politico, SpaceX declined to bid on three Space Force launches and nobody else bid. Rocket Lab is building a facility to speed Electron and HASTE static-fire testing. x.com x.com … Show more
