Jersey Mike's looks expensive relative to its remaining growth runway, with far cheaper opportunities elsewhere in restaurants, food and consumer. It trades at 25x EBITDA with a maturing store fleet and leverage above 4x, and most of the IPO proceeds go to cashing out its private-equity owner. The chain is no Subway copy; it is a Subway killer, just priced too richly. x.com  x.com 

Portillo's is a case of insiders dumping shares on public markets, and its struggles reflect incompetent management. Founder Dick Portillo sold out to private equity in 2014, which then unloaded the company on public investors. Five years after the IPO, its roughly $8 million average unit volume still has not produced profits. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Jersey Mike's has much bigger potential than SpaceX had because it is IPOing into perhaps the start of a run in restaurant stocks. SpaceX listed at the end of the space theme and then collapsed, and Cerebras listed at the end of the semiconductor run. Few people care about the Jersey Mike's IPO, while everyone knew about SpaceX's, which supports the setup. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX is a $3T company doing only $18.7B of revenue with a negative profit margin, which even a brilliant IPO cannot justify. A tiny float, forced index and ETF buying, 4x oversubscription and a staggered lock-up created the demand, but this will not end well; it is not interesting anywhere above $100, and even profitability would not warrant $3T. Per a post the author replies to, staggered lock-up releases could free up to 65% of insider stock between late August and October. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

HawkEye 360's upside is structurally capped as VCs start dumping 25 million shares into the open market, likely sending it below $10 soon. A DCF puts fair value nowhere near $18, and private-market marks matter little when VC cost bases are far lower. A quick sale would at least clear the overhang. x.com  x.com 

Backblaze and JMKE are making new highs that look unbuyable, which often marks the best stocks early in a new rally. Holders sitting on profits are content not to sell, many would-be chasers are scared off because the stock already looks too high, and the move puts it on more radars until the fear fades, greed sets in and chasing picks up. x.com  x.com 

Restaurant stocks, including Chipotle and Wingstop, are uninvestable right now, with too many better places for money. Most have slowing growth, rising costs and poor margins. Wingstop's growth and margins look better than most, but it is still not a buy. x.com  x.com 

Xanadu's stock was a textbook trap that has now sprung, falling about 60% premarket as insiders exit. An S-1 registered about 294M shares for resale by existing holders, which brings the company nothing and floods the float of a startup with $4.6M in annual revenue. A multi-billion-dollar valuation was unsustainable, and as a post-SPAC name its hype premium evaporated once lockups and conversions hit. Brilliant technology doesn't make a safe stock when insiders rush for the exits. x.com 

Agility Robotics' SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI is not the retail-access win it is sold as, because the venture returns are already gone. Amazon, SoftBank and Foxconn aren't new backers; they are rolling existing equity under a 180-day lockup. The $200M minimum cash condition signals that sponsors expect heavy redemptions rather than offering a safeguard. Public investors get the leftover risk without the leftover upside. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's IPO is a classic wealth transfer from new buyers to pre-IPO holders: major IPOs at peak valuation are designed to let insiders and early investors cash out, with launch-day buyers providing their exit liquidity. SpaceX is down roughly 27% in five days. x.com