Babyfolio
Software Engineer, AI Infrastructure Investor
Nokia is an easy double from here, with insiders buying at record levels and the stock having a lot further to go. x.com
A $325K options bet implies Nokia trading 70% higher within the next 10 weeks. x.com
Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia's Q3 revenue and earnings beat despite the selloff makes it one of the most compelling buying opportunities in the market right now. Shares are back at $7.88, nearly 55% below their $17.45 high, after Nvidia invested $1 billion at $6.01 per share in October 2025. x.com
Nokia looks attractive today after a 50% retracement of its latest move, alongside new AI-RAN news and recent options activity. x.com
Nokia's slow work culture makes it a poor investment despite the hype earlier this month. Since June 3, the day after Jensen Huang's remark on Marvell, Nokia has fallen 22.74%, while Marvell, avoided on valuation, fell 9.8%. Conviction remains in Micron and Nebius instead. x.com
Nokia stands out for heavy insider buying, which signals confidence. Per @Sergeant991, a senior manager and the chief of staff are down about a third on purchases near $15.7-15.8, while the CEO is near breakeven around $10.46, and the next insider buying window opens one day after earnings. x.com
Nokia insiders were buying at $15, which makes $10-12 a great area to add. x.com
Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com x.com x.com
Telecom looks cheap as a way to capture AI growth, with Nokia, Inseego and Clearfield the top picks. They are longer-term positions to accumulate at these levels. x.com x.com