Feroce Research
Thematic Research, Technical/Macro/Fundamental Analysis & Quantitative Positioning
Nokia is drawing bullish options flow, including a $273K put seller, and looks like the next name after STMicroelectronics, which has been hit with heavy call buying over the past three months. x.com x.com
Nokia's chart and buying volume point to real bullish potential. It is trading its largest-ever dollar buy volume this month, only four sessions in, after clean 15-minute accumulation patterns. On the six-month chart, price is moving to reclaim support from the early 2000s at $10.75-$13.25, and it is trading above its anchored VWAP in a bullish trend for the first time in nearly two decades. x.com
Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia's Q3 revenue and earnings beat despite the selloff makes it one of the most compelling buying opportunities in the market right now. Shares are back at $7.88, nearly 55% below their $17.45 high, after Nvidia invested $1 billion at $6.01 per share in October 2025. x.com
Nokia has been gaining attention, with a near-term target around $11.50 and longer-term targets around $13, then $15-16. x.com x.com
Nokia looks expensive at $10.78, trading at 19x cash earnings and 18x next year's versus the 11x its industry usually gets. A $5.93-$7.55 fair-value range means paying 43% over the top of fair. These are valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com
Nokia is an easy double from here, with insiders buying at record levels and the stock having a lot further to go. x.com
Nokia is a short-term trade on insider buying and a strong chart structure, with a partial exit eyed at $18-20 depending on momentum. Beyond the trade, it is a good company to hold for the long term. x.com x.com
Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia insiders were buying at $15, which makes $10-12 a great area to add. x.com