Soitec's SOI wafers remain necessary no matter who builds optical engines if co-packaged optics standards take hold. Around 95% of these photonics wafers come from Soitec, so consolidation among module makers changes the buyer, not the need for wafers. Large buyers such as TSMC or Broadcom could pressure pricing and seek a second source, though none is apparent before 2030. That pricing risk is by far smaller than the module makers' architecture risk. x.com 

FOCI Fiber Optic Communications could sit at the center of Nvidia's co-packaged optics supply chain as AI data centers move from pluggable fiber to CPO in 2026. It has built fiber array units with TSMC for over three years, has 1.6T and 3.2T specs in the pipeline, and its proprietary ReLFACon technology removes the need for separate transceivers. A patent trail linking FOCI, Himax and TSMC suggests it is Nvidia's exclusive CPO fiber array supplier. A daily SuperTrend buy signal just confirmed. … Show more

TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.com 

Broadcom's integrated optics, electronics and packaging could lower custom-chip system costs because separate suppliers defend their margins. At similar valuations, it is preferred to Nvidia and has more room to beat expectations. Google TPU v8 shipments are estimated at 4.0M in 2026 and 9.1M in 2027, assuming Broadcom supplies the remainder after MediaTek's allocation. Anthropic financing adds value only if chip profit exceeds likely support payments and capacity costs. x.com  x.com 

FormFactor's production-ready wafer-level CPO probe gives it a test opportunity at a major foundry, but that business depends on one customer. CEO Mike Slessor says the CPO piece flows through a foundry worth 10% of sales; he did not name it, though an analyst named TSMC. Triton tests photonic wafers before stacking; post-stack test remains difficult. FormFactor expects CPO test revenue to significantly exceed $20m this year and estimates a $400m market by 2030. x.com 

TSMC's conservative delay in high-NA adoption will be its downfall as Intel's stitching advances sooner. TSMC's larger-mask alternative requires changing the entire stage and is projected for production by 2033; Intel's stitching is substantially derisked and could be ready for volume production in 2027 at the earliest. TSMC's CoWoS and CoPoS shortcomings add to the concern. x.com 

FOCI's ReLFACon reflowable lensed fiber array connector is its moat in CPO: it links fiber arrays directly into silicon-photonics CPO modules with heat-tolerant materials matching the chip's thermal expansion, holding alignment through hot packaging. Its fiber array units, about 40% of CPO module cost, partly decide whether CPO can be mass-produced. Himax and TSMC ties make it Taiwan's core FAU player. @aleabitoreddit expects Nvidia's Computex keynote to lift Taiwan optics including FOCI. x.com 

Co-packaged optics standards could make finished transceiver modules smaller and more interchangeable as chip designers build optical engines inside their packages. That is another reason to avoid Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics and prefer Soitec. Lumentum and Coherent now earn a lot from finished modules, leaving them exposed if the architecture changes. x.com 

TSMC's shifting cost structure is pressuring gross margin despite revenue and EPS beats. TSMC reported Q3 gross margin of 66.4%, down from 67.7% in Q2, and another decline is guided next quarter; Arizona is expected to drag gross margin by 2-4%. TSMC is checking AI data-center progress as it plans wafer capacity, while reiterating long-term AI demand strength. Price hikes may be next, given management's commitment to protect shareholder interests. x.com  x.com 

TSMC sits in the part of AI's profit chain that everyone has to pass through. AI profits are split extremely unevenly: Nvidia earned $130.4 billion, several times everyone else combined, while server makers like Dell earn thin margins and model makers bleed, with OpenAI losing $8 billion on $13 billion of revenue. The best bets are high-barrier picks and shovels like Nvidia GPUs, TSMC's advanced packaging and HBM; server hardware and most AI apps likely destroy value. x.com