Dell Technologies still has plenty of upside despite a scary-looking price run-up. Per Michael Dell, it just delivered the world's first working, liquid-cooled Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 server rack to CoreWeave. x.comÂ
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Technology & Semiconductor Equity Commentary
Dell has taken the lead among AI system integrators by delivering the first physical NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 rack, a PowerEdge XE9812, to CoreWeave on May 31, ahead of Supermicro and HPE. That proves it can handle NVLink 6 fabrics and fully liquid-cooled plumbing, supporting a shift from a legacy PC and server multiple to a premium AI factory multiple. The delivery also suggests Rubin revenue is arriving earlier than the late-2026 or early-2027 timeline the market has modeled. x.comÂ
CoreWeave is going higher after receiving the world's first working Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 server rack, a liquid-cooled Dell PowerEdge XE9812, per Dell CEO Michael Dell. x.comÂ
Dell still looks expensive at about 20x FY28 estimated EPS, since the expected AI server guidance raise to about $75bn is already priced in; the rating stays Hold. Fiscal Q2 looks soft, with revenue estimated at $42.2bn versus a $44.5bn guidance midpoint and EPS of $4.70 versus $4.84 consensus. NVL72 shipment estimates are cut, enterprise and PC demand show early cooling, and Hon Hai is winning more SpaceX Rubin orders. Tier-2 neocloud buildouts and Vera CPU racks are positives. x.comÂ
Dell should benefit from AI data-center construction because builders say almost every new facility runs on Dell or Super Micro servers. Sales rose 49% in the past year to $151B; Dell is 18% below its high and is an easy double from here. x.comÂ
Meta's unmet AI demand pays its bottleneck suppliers. Super Micro's $19.5B quarterly outlook and under 8x forward earnings point to a double. CoreWeave's Meta deals total $35.2B; it should easily top $100. Builders say nearly all new sites use Dell or Super Micro; Dell could easily double. Micron's demand is off the charts at 5x forward earnings. Sources say Vertiv's gear is sold out for 2-3 years. VivoPower has 2GW+ potential in 5-7 years. Digi Power X has a $1.1B Cerebras deal. x.com x.com … Show more
Dell looks overvalued, trading about seven turns above its historical multiple range and at a premium to many AI semiconductor bottleneck names despite not providing a bottleneck solution. Michael Dell spiking the ball on the latest quarter might mark the top. x.comÂ
Enterprise and neocloud demand is creating a second wave of AI infrastructure spending, with tailwinds for Nvidia and Super Micro. Dell forecasts 200 GW of AI data center growth through 2030, half driven by these customers, and estimates a $1 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity over the next four years. AI servers could enter a new growth phase in 2027, with higher shipment volumes and more revenue per deployment. x.comÂ
NVIDIA's liquid-cooling work with Vertiv can deliver more compute from a fixed power budget. Liquid cooling yields roughly 22% more compute and more tokens from the same power on average, a benefit modeled in an April report. NVIDIA's scale, balance sheet and command of its supply chain make it the economic winner of the AI compute cycle, with Broadcom a close-ish second. x.com x.comÂ
Memory costs remain an unresolved risk for Dell even after a quarter that proved the pre-earnings bearish lean wrong. Gross margin rose to 20.9% from 17.8% and the October quarter was guided to $49.0bn, but AI server revenue grew just 1.7% while backlog jumped to $95bn, so a mix shift toward traditional servers and storage flattered margin. The $74bn full-year AI target needs about 26% sequential AI growth, so memory costs hit the October quarter on a richer AI mix, still unquantified. x.com … Show more
Dell is positioned at the forefront of a multi-hundred-billion-dollar AI infrastructure opportunity with one of the industry's most complete end-to-end offerings, from servers, storage and networking to enterprise software. AI server orders in its ISG infrastructure business are accelerating, partnerships with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have deepened, and global enterprise and government procurement has improved order visibility. Its long-term compounding potential could be substantial. x.comÂ