Merlin Labs' real-time short interest has hit an all-time high of 4.6M shares with the borrow rate still around 37%, building the supply setup further. Short interest has climbed steadily from 3.1M on May 21, even though PIPE holders became free to sell when the resale registration went effective April 17. x.com 

Merlin could squeeze sharply because about 72% of the float is short in a low-float de-SPAC positioned in AI and military spending, two of the decade's biggest themes. The float should stay dried up until late May or June, raising the question of whether it can reach $30 or even $50. x.com 

Merlin Labs common stock is in a death spiral toward zero because preferred holders and shorts hold the upper hand. Equity raises have no limit and the preferred ranks senior to the common, so fundamental analysis does not matter. @ShawarmaCapital, a former bull, attributes the fall from $17 to $1.81 to a roughly 44M-share unlock on a thin float, a Series A Preferred conversion reset on October 15 already headed for its $5 floor, and an unwinding short squeeze. x.com  x.com 

Merlin's finished Critical Design Review for its C-130J autonomy program with US Special Operations Command removes a big chunk of technical risk. It shows Merlin Pilot AI meets the performance, safety and airworthiness standards for one of the military's key transport aircraft, and the program moves to integration and flight tests. A $100 million-plus IDIQ ceiling and commercial runway in cargo and pilot shortages make it asymmetric, and high short interest adds explosive potential. x.com 

Merlin's deal with Israel Aerospace Industries adds credibility and a distribution path, though not revenue, and kills the argument that there is no large-aircraft market, per @ShawarmaCapital. IAI did $7.4B of revenue last year, holds a roughly $29B backlog and leads passenger-to-freighter conversions, owning the only approved 777 widebody conversion in service. There is certainly a future market for large civil aircraft. x.com 

Merlin was always highly speculative: buying a stock at 125x sales means accepting it could fall to 30x without any solid reason why it shouldn't. Its price spike came when it was being pitched like crazy on X. x.com  x.com 

C3is trades far below its cash: about $48M on the books against a float of roughly 1.5-2 million shares implies $24-32 a share, yet the stock is near $1.5, and the company is now profitable. It was a dilution machine while acquiring its fleet, but the story looks to be changing. Short interest is 55%, cost to borrow 146%, few shares remain to short, and institutional ownership rose. About 450,000-500,000 warrants at $1.51 and $2.44 remain, making $2.44 the next target. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Allbirds looks set to grind higher as it runs out of shares to borrow, with the borrow rate up to 330%. Shorts are being sucked in while algos try to take control of the float, and little new borrow is expected to come online, so the move should continue for the next few days. x.com  x.com 

Merlin is a 100x-or-bankrupt opportunity, too binary to invest in personally despite liking Merlin and Matt. Shield AI and Anduril are focused on defense right now, but it makes sense for them to go after the commercial sector eventually with proven tech, and more competitors are targeting cargo. The stock should rebound once high-beta names come back into favor. x.com 

Ondas Holdings looks set to squeeze short sellers hard, with the cost to borrow its shares jumping to 13.5% at the open. x.com