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Metaplanet's best catalyst now is a sustained bitcoin rally, which would expand its mNAV relative to the share price and force the stock higher to hold its 1.01+ premium. The share repurchase plan keeps the stock from bleeding during consolidation. Continued dilution makes a breakout hard, and listing MARS preferred shares could be a game changer but looks hard to get approved in Japan given the government's limited support for bitcoin. x.com x.com x.com
Metaplanet's lag behind the Strategy rally is temporary, not a lasting decoupling. Bitcoin's jump to $78K lifted Strategy and Strive more than 30% while Metaplanet stayed flat, held back by dilution from third-party allotments and warrants and by Tokyo and OTC listings that limit institutional inflows. After early-2026 volatility it is priced for value, not hype. A shift from share issuance to debt financing or an up-listing to a major US exchange would spark a breakout. x.com
Metaplanet is an incredible setup after going from the most loved bitcoin treasury company to the most hated in about a year. It still holds 43,000 BTC yet trades at just 0.84x mNAV, with perpetual preferreds coming online soon. x.com
Metaplanet's zero-interest financing lets it buy back stock and lift bitcoin per share without selling its coins. It just raised $329m in five-year euro-yen convertibles, with $149m for bitcoin-backed loan repayment and up to $179m for repurchases starting tomorrow. It holds 44,000 BTC; this is a bitcoin treasury play half of crypto Twitter is overlooking. x.com
Metaplanet's Q3 bitcoin sale and buyback revealed a lack of transparency and values misaligned with shareholders', after the Series 10 stock-rights episode. On Aug 12 CEO Simon Gerovich wrote that no bitcoin had been sold; nine days later 10,000 BTC began moving from its published addresses to Coinbase Prime, and the sale was disclosed only on Oct 5. Its shares will likely recover when bitcoin surges, but other companies are better positioned morally, structurally and reputationally. x.com x.com
Metaplanet should get a nice reboot from its board's decision to cancel 41% of the shares tied to its Series 10 stock acquisition rights, resetting the conversion ratio to its pre-September 2025 level. Per CEO Simon Gerovich's shareholder letter, the move lifts Bitcoin per fully diluted share by about 8.8% and is meant to show management is aligned with shareholders. The stock should be back over $2 very shortly, as @HermesLux also says, with Super League Enterprise as rocket fuel. x.com x.com
Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com x.com
Metaplanet's new convertible bond gives up far more in conversion value than its zero coupon saves. Strategy sold the same instrument at roughly 5x NAV in 2024; Metaplanet is selling barely above 1x. The conversion price is not yet set, and the CEO is lending 55 million personal shares to the bookrunners on undisclosed terms. Those additions compound concerns about its five warrant series, convertible preferred and management option pool. x.com x.com
Metaplanet's cut to its 10th Series stock options raises bitcoin per diluted share about 8.8% without buying more bitcoin and better aligns management with shareholders. Shares per right fall from 696 to 410, cutting remaining potential dilution 55.5% to 105.4 million shares, and unvested rights are pushed out to 2029-2031. Effective diluted shares fall from 1.632 billion to 1.500 billion against 43,000 BTC. The pay had been too much; this change is enough to stay in a unique 5-10 year thesis. … Show more
Metaplanet's management and shareholders are now much better aligned after the company cut the controversial Series 10 award by 131M shares, or 41%, including about 79M from CEO Simon Gerovich, a $123M forfeit. Remaining exercises move to 2029-31, the plan to recycle legacy options is scrapped, and extra compensation from share issuance after September 2025 is stripped out. Bitcoin per effective diluted share rises 8.8% mechanically as a result. x.com x.com
Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com x.com x.com
Heavy inflows could lift Strive's mNAV above Strategy's for periods because they have more impact on the smaller company. Strive could do even better than 6x versus Strategy's 4x, as investors seek the faster Bitcoin treasury stock. x.com x.com x.com
