Riber could become a steady compounder if foundry orders arrive, though the stock has run past fundamentals and rivals may cap its market. Its MBE order from QD Laser is bullish, as MBE is more precise for quantum-dot epitaxy, but ETRI researchers showed MOCVD makes QD lasers cheaper with better yield, and Riber has no MOCVD hedge. If TSMC, Intel or Samsung adopt Veeco and imec's 300mm BTO process over ROSIE 2, Riber is boxed into a niche, so it needs a firm ROSIE 2 order from one by Q4 2026. … Show more

Riber is a long-term quantum bet: it supplies equipment that Microsoft uses for quantum computing, which should pay off well if quantum becomes real over a five-year hold. Material orders are unlikely to inflect soon, so the stock will probably be highly volatile. This view comes with limited familiarity with the company. x.com 

Riber should not be bought because the bullish claims about it outrun its financial statements. Reaching €120 million in sales this year looks impossible when there is not even guidance yet. Bulls cite 19 orders for the ROSI 2 platform, but only two have been reported, and the annual report says ROSI 2 is still in the design phase. The stock's 30% drop shows fundamental reality reasserting itself like gravity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Riber's quantum and photonics exposure keeps building: a second ROSIE system is expected to be delivered shortly to a leading US quantum computing player, and business development for its photonics BTO/STO products has drawn strong interest. It forms an MBE duopoly with Veeco, which was recently re-rated heavily. x.com 

AI bandwidth demand still favors Coherent and Lumentum, but tight customer financing can delay orders and lasting valuations need durable profits. A model provider losing share need not reduce total bandwidth use. Coherent could beat and raise guidance; Lumentum may only meet estimates this quarter, improving next quarter. If margins partly reflect scarce indium phosphide, added supply will test whether upgrades, volume and cost gains sustain earnings. These earnings calls remain forecasts. … Show more

Indium phosphide laser capacity, not demand, now caps how fast 1.6T optics ship, and Coherent owns its laser fabs and grows its own substrate. That makes the InP squeeze Goldman flags through 2027 work in its favor. Record Q4 revenue of $2.05 billion rose 34% as six-inch InP wafers ramped, with 40.2% non-GAAP gross margin and 42%+ guided, at a 0.92 PEG. The risk: with about $3.55 billion of debt and cash burn, it can't absorb a 1.6T ramp slip; six-inch yield at volume is the test. x.com 

IQE's bottleneck position in AI optics is already priced in, so the easy money is gone until its revenue and profits grow. Per @jpinsights, IQE grows the indium phosphide epiwafers high-speed lasers are built from, and validation came through MACOM's GBP45m investment, Tower's multi-year supply deal and a GBP81m raise. But the stock has rerated hard, and it is unclear whether any of this has reached IQE's own numbers. x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors' management is letting a generational InP bottleneck pass it by. Burning cash on incremental fab tweaks keeps it just a laser vendor, and the call gave generic evasions on the two metrics that move the stock: its six pluggable engagements and foundry allocations. The CFO's hedging on a US dual listing shows timid complacency that will keep Sivers priced like a sleepy European component supplier rather than a high-multiple tech engine like SK hynix or ASML. x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors' $30M expansion of its Glasgow InP fab, targeting over 100M CW DFB lasers a year by Q4 2027, likely means hard dilution. As @PhotonCap notes, the plan shifts Sivers toward hybrid manufacturing, and its capacity target and customer ramps remain forward-looking rather than committed volumes. x.com 

IQE's 43% first-half revenue growth overstates the recovery, because the group is still slightly smaller than two years ago. Photonics is a genuine breakout at £38.5m, 44% above H1 2024, but wireless at £26.0m remains a third below that level and is still recovering. A £4.0m working-capital outflow absorbed the margin gain, 61% of May's £81m raise went to lenders, and depreciation runs about nine times capex. Converted InP lines delivering H2 volume without more capex would prove efficiency. … Show more