Riber's quantum and photonics exposure keeps building: a second ROSIE system is expected to be delivered shortly to a leading US quantum computing player, and business development for its photonics BTO/STO products has drawn strong interest. It forms an MBE duopoly with Veeco, which was recently re-rated heavily. x.com 

Riber's 25% share price drop reflects sentiment, not the business, so the bullish thesis is intact. Much of the slide is collateral damage from IQE's meltdown and broader sector cooling, magnified by thin small-cap liquidity. Riber is the global leader in molecular beam epitaxy, order visibility stays very high as chipmaking shifts to GaN and InP, and it supplies upstream enablers like IQE and Soitec. No other upstream semiconductor play offers this technical edge at such a lean market cap. … Show more

Riber should not be bought because the bullish claims about it outrun its financial statements. Reaching €120 million in sales this year looks impossible when there is not even guidance yet. Bulls cite 19 orders for the ROSI 2 platform, but only two have been reported, and the annual report says ROSI 2 is still in the design phase. The stock's 30% drop shows fundamental reality reasserting itself like gravity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Riber is a long-term quantum bet: it supplies equipment that Microsoft uses for quantum computing, which should pay off well if quantum becomes real over a five-year hold. Material orders are unlikely to inflect soon, so the stock will probably be highly volatile. This view comes with limited familiarity with the company. x.com 

Aixtron and Veeco stand to benefit because indium phosphide is the real bottleneck in optical interconnect, one nothing else can replace. InP looks set to stay structurally short in both demand and supply over the next three to five years, a theme the market has not yet fully priced, which makes both equipment makers attractive. x.com  x.com 

Veeco is benefiting as InP laser capacity expansion turns into actual upstream equipment orders. A global optical and photonics company ordered its LUMINA+ MOCVD system to make InP lasers for datacom, after a series of recent orders, as major optical suppliers expand InP laser capacity. LightCounting, cited by Veeco, expects optical transceiver sales to reach $39B in 2026, up 53%. This is not proof of a severe InP laser shortage, but suppliers are adding capacity ahead of a potential bottleneck. … Show more

Veeco is a top beneficiary of AI data centers' shift to photonics, as its tools make the indium phosphide lasers inside 800G and 1.6T transceivers and equipment orders lead the chip cycle. It disclosed over $250M of orders for its IBD, MOCVD and WaferEtch systems, shipping from late 2026 and ramping through 2027. Its laser annealing is critical to yields for 3nm and 2nm logic and HBM at makers like TSMC and Micron, and its pending Axcelis merger should add synergies. x.com 

Veeco is an AI pick-and-shovel play ramping from a 2025 trough, because its laser spike annealing tools are tool-of-record for gate-all-around transistors at TSMC, Intel and Samsung. Requalification is costly, so those wins lock in demand as fabs ramp, and its annealing market should grow from ~$600 million to $1 billion-plus. Ion beam deposition, HBM packaging and the Axcelis merger add growth, with FY2026 guidance of $740-800 million revenue. The key risk is China's SAMR blocking the merger. … Show more

IQE's outsourced epitaxy business is structurally disadvantaged because demanding optics customers want the whole chain under their own control. Big integrated players such as Lumentum and Applied Optoelectronics run their own reactors and want to control manufacturing conditions throughout. Shipping wafers to an outside fab for epi growth and back falls short of that ideal, so regardless of IQE's execution the business model is unappealing, even as @crux_capital_ turns more positive. x.com