Serenity
AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader
Riber's quantum and photonics exposure keeps building: a second ROSIE system is expected to be delivered shortly to a leading US quantum computing player, and business development for its photonics BTO/STO products has drawn strong interest. It forms an MBE duopoly with Veeco, which was recently re-rated heavily. x.com
Riber looks highly compelling at current prices. Microsoft Quantum is its core hyperscaler customer, alongside quantum-dot makers such as QD Laser and photonics foundries such as IQE. It is profitable, pays dividends and holds a genuine duopoly in MBE equipment, and order book growth is accelerating with a new breakthrough in silicon photonics machines. Comparing it with names like Lightwave Logic keeps reinforcing that view. x.com
Riber is a long-term quantum bet: it supplies equipment that Microsoft uses for quantum computing, which should pay off well if quantum becomes real over a five-year hold. Material orders are unlikely to inflect soon, so the stock will probably be highly volatile. This view comes with limited familiarity with the company. x.com
Riber could become a steady compounder if foundry orders arrive, though the stock has run past fundamentals and rivals may cap its market. Its MBE order from QD Laser is bullish, as MBE is more precise for quantum-dot epitaxy, but ETRI researchers showed MOCVD makes QD lasers cheaper with better yield, and Riber has no MOCVD hedge. If TSMC, Intel or Samsung adopt Veeco and imec's 300mm BTO process over ROSIE 2, Riber is boxed into a niche, so it needs a firm ROSIE 2 order from one by Q4 2026. … Show more
Riber should not be bought because the bullish claims about it outrun its financial statements. Reaching €120 million in sales this year looks impossible when there is not even guidance yet. Bulls cite 19 orders for the ROSI 2 platform, but only two have been reported, and the annual report says ROSI 2 is still in the design phase. The stock's 30% drop shows fundamental reality reasserting itself like gravity. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Riber's 25% share price drop reflects sentiment, not the business, so the bullish thesis is intact. Much of the slide is collateral damage from IQE's meltdown and broader sector cooling, magnified by thin small-cap liquidity. Riber is the global leader in molecular beam epitaxy, order visibility stays very high as chipmaking shifts to GaN and InP, and it supplies upstream enablers like IQE and Soitec. No other upstream semiconductor play offers this technical edge at such a lean market cap. … Show more
Trump's executive order for a US quantum computer at a national lab by 2028, with the post-quantum encryption deadline pulled to 2031, makes quantum a strategic industry funded like chips and nuclear. Rigetti, D-Wave and Infleqtion each got $100M with the government as shareholder. IonQ leads on revenue via direct defense contracts, with Q1 revenue up 755% to $64.7M. Quantum Computing Inc is a lottery ticket at ~635x sales; the Defiance ETF is a basket. Backing de-risks science, not valuations. … Show more
IonQ's growing backlog and faster chip production strengthen its bullish case by securing future revenue and shortening production time. Q2 revenue jumped 287% YoY to $80M, beating expectations for a fifth straight quarter; backlog quadrupled to $485M and 2026 revenue guidance rose to $450M-$460M. SkyWater cuts chip production from nine to two months; 256-qubit bookings opened for early 2027 delivery, and the $1.3B Elisity acquisition targets quantum cybersecurity. x.com
Quantum component and foundry suppliers such as GlobalFoundries have been the better way to own the quantum cycle than pure plays. Over the past year the four quantum pure plays averaged -10.6% while seven component and metrology names, including GlobalFoundries, averaged +156%, and the Defiance Quantum ETF rose 54.9%. Most of the component gains, though, came from AI demand. US Commerce Department equity funding lowers financing risk for the industry, not technology risk. x.com
Quantum Computing Inc. is premature as an investment and not a serious contender to bring TFLN photonics into the data center. Its billion-dollar roll-up strategy, funded by share issuance, brings a lot of execution risk and management has much to prove. Its Arizona Fab 1 runs as a 150-mm TFLN development and foundry facility preparing to ramp. Direct quantum computing is a mid-2030s story, though government-funded component sellers can earn revenue, so it stays on the watchlist. x.com
GlobalFoundries' Xanadu partnership strengthens its position as a shared quantum-manufacturing platform across architectures. Its Malta fab will develop ultra-low-loss SiN photonics and superconducting nanowire detectors, alongside up to $375M in US quantum R&D funding. It ranked first of 23 companies in the earlier quantum map; production volumes and revenue remain undisclosed, with process transfer and yield validation still ahead. x.com
Nokia's Allentown expansion reshores a US optical-packaging chokepoint, yet the stock still trades at a telecom multiple. Its $30M investment, touted by President Trump, buys up to a 10x expansion of advanced test and packaging in Allentown, Pennsylvania, one of the few US sites able to package photonic chips into AI data-center optical modules; under 2% of chip packaging is in the US. JPMorgan raised its target to $21, insiders bought in May, and Q1 AI and cloud orders hit €1B, mostly optical. … Show more
