PhotonBull
Equity Researcher, Co-Runner of Retail Club
Laser defense is arriving as regulators approve it, and nLIGHT is the US pure play on that shift. The FAA has greenlit laser sentry guns against attack drones in US airspace, per @zerohedge. nLIGHT is developing lasers up to 1MW, the strongest in development, at only about a $3.5B market cap, while AeroVironment, despite its Locust system, is too diversified for laser exposure. x.comÂ
Laser weapons are an obvious next sector to benefit because the Iran war shows how bad the economics of defending against drones and missiles are, and lasers fix that. nLIGHT is a great long here as a true industry leader with vertical integration and the highest-power lasers, and could be a multibagger. The limit is weather: lasers need clear skies, so they are sold alongside kinetic and explosive defenses rather than relied on alone. x.com x.comÂ
nLight has pivoted from industrial lasers to a lean, high-margin defense play, with high risk and high reward. It is a core winner in high-energy laser defense, where its HELSI-2 prototype-to-production work drove record FY2025 revenue of $261 million, up 31%. It raised about $200 million in February 2026 to expand aerospace and defense capacity, cutting reliance on the cyclical industrial market. x.comÂ
nLIGHT is cheap and well placed to re-rate after being crushed post-earnings, and it is the far better long-term name. Its laser is the US military's favorite against drone swarms, being the cheapest to use and reportedly able to run 12 hours without a generator. It is not a particularly high-quality name. x.comÂ
nLIGHT's price now assumes high-energy lasers will replace much of kinetic weapons and nLIGHT will be the main beneficiary; if either is wrong, downside is real. Being the laser leader is a reasonable bet, but an enormous laser TAM is less certain after talks with friends in defense. Drones and missiles can be countered many ways, and the US will likely use layered defense. At the right price it is attractive, and the upside may be underestimated. x.comÂ
nLIGHT's opportunities are huge, but supply-chain problems could last longer than the market prices in, so it is only worth adding on a significant drop. Weapons restocking should help its laser sensing business, and a new JLWS award brings $44M in 2026 with a $627M ceiling. But Q3 guidance is much weaker because China is holding optical components in customs, which the CEO called political football. At a rich multiple, it could languish in the $40s until the next big win. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Electro Optic Systems benefits from being free of ITAR export controls, while those controls are hurting nLIGHT. nLIGHT could be doing a lot better. x.comÂ
LightPath Technologies trades at 6.3x FY2027 analyst revenue, half nLIGHT's 13x on essentially the same small-cap defense photonics setup. NDAA Section 834 requires the Pentagon to drop optical glass from China, Russia and others by 2030, and LightPath holds the only US chalcogenide glass licensed from the Naval Research Laboratory. After Q3 revenue rose 109%, analysts lifted FY2027 revenue 27% to $106M. Risks include G5 earnout charges, a $200M shelf and a plant in China. x.com x.comÂ
nLIGHT's aerospace and defense business is booming, which made this a great report. The caveat is longer term: revenue growth will slow as it divests one of its two slow-growth or shrinking business lines, and algorithms may punish the shares after the Q3 or Q4 report, a problem for October 2026 or early 2027. x.comÂ
The suppliers beneath the big nuclear deals going to Constellation Energy and Vistra get paid while the utilities get the headlines. GE Vernova supplies nuclear equipment, turbines and grid gear; Cameco uranium, fuel and Westinghouse technology; Centrus US enrichment and HALEU for the coming SMR boom; BWX Technologies nuclear components and reactor manufacturing. Oklo is an SMR developer and future fuel customer, while Fluor and Quanta Services add construction and power-infrastructure exposure. … Show more
nLIGHT sits in the hot fiber-optics space, is nearly profitable and posted triple-digit EPS growth last year. All analysts rate it a strong buy, with an $88 target. x.comÂ
When wars drag on, the sensors and components inside weapons platforms make the money, which favors nLIGHT, LightPath and RFHIC. On March 3, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, KOSPI crashed 7.24% while sensor makers such as RFHIC rallied alongside platform names. RF power amplifiers inside radars such as Cheongung-II's are the bottleneck, and RFHIC signed a KRW 50.6 billion amplifier contract with Raytheon Canada. The same InP, GaAs and GaN wafers go into lasers, radars and IR sensors. x.com … Show more
