LightPath's counter-drone deliveries could significantly lift revenue in the upcoming report if their monthly cadence began mid-last quarter. Sam Rubin said two systems are moving toward tens of deliveries monthly; Trust Automation is almost definitely one, but the ramp is unknown. Exclusively licensed, DoD-qualified BDNL materials and IR redesign expertise give LightPath a strong moat over generic-material rivals; integrators often lack optics teams, though other materials have uses. x.com  … Show more

LightPath's large drone-camera optics order validates its ability to scale production for military thermal imaging. An unnamed key defense customer ordered over 50,000 optical assemblies amid accelerating U.S. drone procurement; assemblies grew from 23% of FY2025 revenue to 44% in FY2026. x.com 

LightPath Technologies is expensive against its sales, trading at about 13x sales versus the 5x its industry usually gets. At 5x trailing sales, fair value is $5.23-$6.65, leaving the $13.64 price 105% above the high end. This is a valuation-levels view only, based on reported earnings and revenue estimates rather than fundamental work. x.com 

nLight has pivoted from industrial lasers to a lean, high-margin defense play, with high risk and high reward. It is a core winner in high-energy laser defense, where its HELSI-2 prototype-to-production work drove record FY2025 revenue of $261 million, up 31%. It raised about $200 million in February 2026 to expand aerospace and defense capacity, cutting reliance on the cyclical industrial market. x.com 

LightPath's production-scale drone-optics order signals further demand as the industry shifts from germanium. The order is now estimated at $15M-17.5M based on program economics, down from an initial $20M-plus estimate; the customer remains unconfirmed after an initial Anduril guess. Rubin and Miranda's 2.975M options at a $10.53 strike vest on a buyout, making $7-$9 bids unattractive; a meaningful payout needs a price in the mid-teens or $20s. More orders are expected. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

nLIGHT's aerospace and defense business is booming, which made this a great report. The caveat is longer term: revenue growth will slow as it divests one of its two slow-growth or shrinking business lines, and algorithms may punish the shares after the Q3 or Q4 report, a problem for October 2026 or early 2027. x.com 

LightPath's growth should stay very good but slow from about 100% year over year, and dilution is heavier than modeled, moderately lowering future share-price projections. Two raises and North Run's Series G conversions lifted shares to about 70M, with ~3M more to come; projected shares now rise from 71.5M in 2026 to 90M by 2029. A Lockheed NGSRI win this fall could anchor $50–100M a year, but wins typically become revenue 10–18 months later, and space revenue is likely mid-2028 at the earliest. … Show more

LightPath Technologies is a good long-term buy because revenue has doubled while its valuation is now below $600 million. It is hard to see it not doing well long term; LightPath still looks like a $10 billion company in five years. x.com  x.com 

LightPath's strategic value looks enormous as China restricts rare earths, since it offers the only US alternative to restricted rare-earth materials. nLight's sudden China supply issues, which its management said could spill into defense and high-energy lasers, show China trying to slow the US defense industry. LightPath is also moving up the value chain into cameras built with its proprietary glass, and a recent acquisition lets it make much larger optics for markets such as satellites. x.com 

nLIGHT's opportunities are huge, but supply-chain problems could last longer than the market prices in, so it is only worth adding on a significant drop. Weapons restocking should help its laser sensing business, and a new JLWS award brings $44M in 2026 with a $627M ceiling. But Q3 guidance is much weaker because China is holding optical components in customs, which the CEO called political football. At a rich multiple, it could languish in the $40s until the next big win. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more