LightPath's large drone-camera optics order validates its ability to scale production for military thermal imaging. An unnamed key defense customer ordered over 50,000 optical assemblies amid accelerating U.S. drone procurement; assemblies grew from 23% of FY2025 revenue to 44% in FY2026. x.com 

LightPath's production-scale drone-optics order signals further demand as the industry shifts from germanium. The order is now estimated at $15M-17.5M based on program economics, down from an initial $20M-plus estimate; the customer remains unconfirmed after an initial Anduril guess. Rubin and Miranda's 2.975M options at a $10.53 strike vest on a buyout, making $7-$9 bids unattractive; a meaningful payout needs a price in the mid-teens or $20s. More orders are expected. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

LightPath Technologies is expensive against its sales, trading at about 13x sales versus the 5x its industry usually gets. At 5x trailing sales, fair value is $5.23-$6.65, leaving the $13.64 price 105% above the high end. This is a valuation-levels view only, based on reported earnings and revenue estimates rather than fundamental work. x.com 

LightPath's path into laser counter-drone systems is more direct than assumed, though it is not yet a laser-weapons program win. Its investor materials list directed-energy weapon integration within C-UAS, with its IR cameras acting as the eyes that detect and track targets. Backlog rose from $37.4M to $110.6M, and it won an $11M follow-on C-UAS camera order. The Pentagon's DIU Bridge Program, meant to speed prototypes into production, could help, but real design wins and volumes are needed. … Show more

LightPath Technologies is a good long-term buy because revenue has doubled while its valuation is now below $600 million. It is hard to see it not doing well long term; LightPath still looks like a $10 billion company in five years. x.com  x.com 

Counter-drone defense is in its early stages, with much more deployment to come to protect critical infrastructure, and LightPath Technologies, MS International and Guerrilla RF are good ways to play it. Mikhail Khodorkovsky notes Ukrainian drones are hitting practically every major refinery in European Russia, with even the Moscow refinery not covered by air defense. x.com 

LightPath Technologies' 20% drop on the Army's delay of its Stinger replacement program is a huge overreaction. Reopening NGSRI to new bidders with a Spring 2027 demo pushes out a contract worth $50-100M a year if Lockheed wins, but it is none of current revenue or the $110M backlog. CEO Sam Rubin says Pentagon funding is coming in some form, and after its $820M loan to Performance Drone Works, the Pentagon said similar deals would follow. 75%+ of American drones carry LightPath optics. x.com 

LightPath's growth should stay very good but slow from about 100% year over year, and dilution is heavier than modeled, moderately lowering future share-price projections. Two raises and North Run's Series G conversions lifted shares to about 70M, with ~3M more to come; projected shares now rise from 71.5M in 2026 to 90M by 2029. A Lockheed NGSRI win this fall could anchor $50–100M a year, but wins typically become revenue 10–18 months later, and space revenue is likely mid-2028 at the earliest. … Show more

LightPath Technologies looks mispriced because most still value it as an optics components shop while it is becoming the domestic infrared supply chain. Its BlackDiamond chalcogenide glass replaces germanium, which China put under export controls, and it is moving from selling lenses to selling imaging systems. Last quarter revenue rose 109%, gross margin rose 700bps to 36%, adjusted EBITDA turned positive and backlog hit a record ~$110M. The re-rate comes from the mix, not the multiple. x.com 

LightPath Technologies trades at 6.3x FY2027 analyst revenue, half nLIGHT's 13x on essentially the same small-cap defense photonics setup. NDAA Section 834 requires the Pentagon to drop optical glass from China, Russia and others by 2030, and LightPath holds the only US chalcogenide glass licensed from the Naval Research Laboratory. After Q3 revenue rose 109%, analysts lifted FY2027 revenue 27% to $106M. Risks include G5 earnout charges, a $200M shelf and a plant in China. x.com  x.com