Walnut Ave Value
Value Investor & Writer
Counter-drone defense is in its early stages, with much more deployment to come to protect critical infrastructure, and LightPath Technologies, MS International and Guerrilla RF are good ways to play it. Mikhail Khodorkovsky notes Ukrainian drones are hitting practically every major refinery in European Russia, with even the Moscow refinery not covered by air defense. x.comÂ
LightPath's counter-drone deliveries could significantly lift revenue in the upcoming report if their monthly cadence began mid-last quarter. Sam Rubin said two systems are moving toward tens of deliveries monthly; Trust Automation is almost definitely one, but the ramp is unknown. Exclusively licensed, DoD-qualified BDNL materials and IR redesign expertise give LightPath a strong moat over generic-material rivals; integrators often lack optics teams, though other materials have uses. x.com … Show more
LightPath's large drone-camera optics order validates its ability to scale production for military thermal imaging. An unnamed key defense customer ordered over 50,000 optical assemblies amid accelerating U.S. drone procurement; assemblies grew from 23% of FY2025 revenue to 44% in FY2026. x.comÂ
LightPath Technologies is a good long-term buy because revenue has doubled while its valuation is now below $600 million. It is hard to see it not doing well long term; LightPath still looks like a $10 billion company in five years. x.com x.comÂ
LightPath's path into laser counter-drone systems is more direct than assumed, though it is not yet a laser-weapons program win. Its investor materials list directed-energy weapon integration within C-UAS, with its IR cameras acting as the eyes that detect and track targets. Backlog rose from $37.4M to $110.6M, and it won an $11M follow-on C-UAS camera order. The Pentagon's DIU Bridge Program, meant to speed prototypes into production, could help, but real design wins and volumes are needed. … Show more
LightPath Technologies offers unique, high-demand optical and infrared technologies vital for defense and industrial applications. x.comÂ
The real chokepoint in air defense is the sensor, not the interceptor: blind the detection layer and the kill chain breaks, as Iran showed in the Gulf. RF detection is going obsolete because fiber-optic and autonomous drones emit nothing, so passive infrared is the answer, with Golden Dome as the funded response. LightPath supplies infrared sensing, Ondas offers drone and counter-drone platforms plus a LightPath stake, and Kraken Robotics applies the same logic undersea with sonar. x.comÂ
When wars drag on, the sensors and components inside weapons platforms make the money, which favors nLIGHT, LightPath and RFHIC. On March 3, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, KOSPI crashed 7.24% while sensor makers such as RFHIC rallied alongside platform names. RF power amplifiers inside radars such as Cheongung-II's are the bottleneck, and RFHIC signed a KRW 50.6 billion amplifier contract with Raytheon Canada. The same InP, GaAs and GaN wafers go into lasers, radars and IR sensors. x.com … Show more
LightPath's strategic value looks enormous as China restricts rare earths, since it offers the only US alternative to restricted rare-earth materials. nLight's sudden China supply issues, which its management said could spill into defense and high-energy lasers, show China trying to slow the US defense industry. LightPath is also moving up the value chain into cameras built with its proprietary glass, and a recent acquisition lets it make much larger optics for markets such as satellites. x.comÂ
Rising government spending on drones and counter-UAS makes drone and counter-drone companies such as LightPath, Ondas, Unusual Machines, Red Cat and Kopin broad beneficiaries. The UK announced a major defense increase including more than GBP5 billion for drones and autonomous systems, plus further counter-UAS and air defense investment. AeroVironment, Kratos and the primes also benefit, though primes are boring. x.com x.comÂ
LightPath Technologies' 20% drop on the Army's delay of its Stinger replacement program is a huge overreaction. Reopening NGSRI to new bidders with a Spring 2027 demo pushes out a contract worth $50-100M a year if Lockheed wins, but it is none of current revenue or the $110M backlog. CEO Sam Rubin says Pentagon funding is coming in some form, and after its $820M loan to Performance Drone Works, the Pentagon said similar deals would follow. 75%+ of American drones carry LightPath optics. x.comÂ
