Burak Finance
Head of Analytics, Growth Investor, PLTR/NBIS/RKLB
LightPath's counter-drone deliveries could significantly lift revenue in the upcoming report if their monthly cadence began mid-last quarter. Sam Rubin said two systems are moving toward tens of deliveries monthly; Trust Automation is almost definitely one, but the ramp is unknown. Exclusively licensed, DoD-qualified BDNL materials and IR redesign expertise give LightPath a strong moat over generic-material rivals; integrators often lack optics teams, though other materials have uses. x.com … Show more
LightPath's large drone-camera optics order validates its ability to scale production for military thermal imaging. An unnamed key defense customer ordered over 50,000 optical assemblies amid accelerating U.S. drone procurement; assemblies grew from 23% of FY2025 revenue to 44% in FY2026. x.comÂ
LightPath Technologies is expensive against its sales, trading at about 13x sales versus the 5x its industry usually gets. At 5x trailing sales, fair value is $5.23-$6.65, leaving the $13.64 price 105% above the high end. This is a valuation-levels view only, based on reported earnings and revenue estimates rather than fundamental work. x.comÂ
LightPath Technologies is a good long-term buy because revenue has doubled while its valuation is now below $600 million. It is hard to see it not doing well long term; LightPath still looks like a $10 billion company in five years. x.com x.comÂ
LightPath's strategic value looks enormous as China restricts rare earths, since it offers the only US alternative to restricted rare-earth materials. nLight's sudden China supply issues, which its management said could spill into defense and high-energy lasers, show China trying to slow the US defense industry. LightPath is also moving up the value chain into cameras built with its proprietary glass, and a recent acquisition lets it make much larger optics for markets such as satellites. x.comÂ
LightPath Technologies looks mispriced because most still value it as an optics components shop while it is becoming the domestic infrared supply chain. Its BlackDiamond chalcogenide glass replaces germanium, which China put under export controls, and it is moving from selling lenses to selling imaging systems. Last quarter revenue rose 109%, gross margin rose 700bps to 36%, adjusted EBITDA turned positive and backlog hit a record ~$110M. The re-rate comes from the mix, not the multiple. x.comÂ
Counter-drone defense is in its early stages, with much more deployment to come to protect critical infrastructure, and LightPath Technologies, MS International and Guerrilla RF are good ways to play it. Mikhail Khodorkovsky notes Ukrainian drones are hitting practically every major refinery in European Russia, with even the Moscow refinery not covered by air defense. x.comÂ
LightPath, Syntec Optics and Optex Systems stand to benefit as investment banks start explicitly talking about a coming supply-chain crunch in defense photonics. x.comÂ
LightPath could be one of the small-cap leaders in coming weeks as its revenue hits a growth inflection. The infrared optics maker for defense, aerospace, industrial and AI vision had flat revenue of $30-38M for five years, while analysts now expect $66M and $83M over the next two years. It rose 24% in a week on strong accumulation, trades above its IPO VWAP and key moving averages, and 35% short interest adds fuel. x.comÂ
LightPath's path into laser counter-drone systems is more direct than assumed, though it is not yet a laser-weapons program win. Its investor materials list directed-energy weapon integration within C-UAS, with its IR cameras acting as the eyes that detect and track targets. Backlog rose from $37.4M to $110.6M, and it won an $11M follow-on C-UAS camera order. The Pentagon's DIU Bridge Program, meant to speed prototypes into production, could help, but real design wins and volumes are needed. … Show more