LightPath's counter-drone deliveries could significantly lift revenue in the upcoming report if their monthly cadence began mid-last quarter. Sam Rubin said two systems are moving toward tens of deliveries monthly; Trust Automation is almost definitely one, but the ramp is unknown. Exclusively licensed, DoD-qualified BDNL materials and IR redesign expertise give LightPath a strong moat over generic-material rivals; integrators often lack optics teams, though other materials have uses. x.com  … Show more

LightPath's production-scale drone-optics order signals further demand as the industry shifts from germanium. The order is now estimated at $15M-17.5M based on program economics, down from an initial $20M-plus estimate; the customer remains unconfirmed after an initial Anduril guess. Rubin and Miranda's 2.975M options at a $10.53 strike vest on a buyout, making $7-$9 bids unattractive; a meaningful payout needs a price in the mid-teens or $20s. More orders are expected. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

LightPath Technologies is expensive against its sales, trading at about 13x sales versus the 5x its industry usually gets. At 5x trailing sales, fair value is $5.23-$6.65, leaving the $13.64 price 105% above the high end. This is a valuation-levels view only, based on reported earnings and revenue estimates rather than fundamental work. x.com 

LightPath's growth should stay very good but slow from about 100% year over year, and dilution is heavier than modeled, moderately lowering future share-price projections. Two raises and North Run's Series G conversions lifted shares to about 70M, with ~3M more to come; projected shares now rise from 71.5M in 2026 to 90M by 2029. A Lockheed NGSRI win this fall could anchor $50–100M a year, but wins typically become revenue 10–18 months later, and space revenue is likely mid-2028 at the earliest. … Show more

LightPath's large drone-camera optics order validates its ability to scale production for military thermal imaging. An unnamed key defense customer ordered over 50,000 optical assemblies amid accelerating U.S. drone procurement; assemblies grew from 23% of FY2025 revenue to 44% in FY2026. x.com 

LightPath Technologies offers unique, high-demand optical and infrared technologies vital for defense and industrial applications. x.com 

LightPath Technologies' NGSRI work is a big deal and the reason to keep holding. As @BussinBiotech highlights, management says the Defense Logistics Agency is funding LightPath to accelerate commercialization of BlackDiamond materials, made under an exclusive license to Naval Research Laboratory designs that can replace germanium one for one. LightPath is racing defense customers to integrate them into as many systems as possible, easing germanium supply and improving performance. x.com 

LightPath could be one of the small-cap leaders in coming weeks as its revenue hits a growth inflection. The infrared optics maker for defense, aerospace, industrial and AI vision had flat revenue of $30-38M for five years, while analysts now expect $66M and $83M over the next two years. It rose 24% in a week on strong accumulation, trades above its IPO VWAP and key moving averages, and 35% short interest adds fuel. x.com 

LightPath's strategic value looks enormous as China restricts rare earths, since it offers the only US alternative to restricted rare-earth materials. nLight's sudden China supply issues, which its management said could spill into defense and high-energy lasers, show China trying to slow the US defense industry. LightPath is also moving up the value chain into cameras built with its proprietary glass, and a recent acquisition lets it make much larger optics for markets such as satellites. x.com 

LightPath's smart offering clears a large holder out of the cap table. Per @fundmyfund, it is only about 5.5% dilution; the other half is a block sale at a firm $14 moving that holder's shares to institutions that will hopefully stay for the next three to five years. A similar FPS offering was followed by a strong run; LightPath should look similar, less quickly, in about two to three weeks, as FPS has data center tailwinds. Target is $20-25 this year, much higher longer term. x.com  x.com  x.com