Venu
Position Trader, Market Leaders, Fundamental/Technical Analysis
LightPath could be one of the small-cap leaders in coming weeks as its revenue hits a growth inflection. The infrared optics maker for defense, aerospace, industrial and AI vision had flat revenue of $30-38M for five years, while analysts now expect $66M and $83M over the next two years. It rose 24% in a week on strong accumulation, trades above its IPO VWAP and key moving averages, and 35% short interest adds fuel. x.com
LightPath Technologies is a good long-term buy because revenue has doubled while its valuation is now below $600 million. It is hard to see it not doing well long term; LightPath still looks like a $10 billion company in five years. x.com x.com
LightPath's counter-drone deliveries could significantly lift revenue in the upcoming report if their monthly cadence began mid-last quarter. Sam Rubin said two systems are moving toward tens of deliveries monthly; Trust Automation is almost definitely one, but the ramp is unknown. Exclusively licensed, DoD-qualified BDNL materials and IR redesign expertise give LightPath a strong moat over generic-material rivals; integrators often lack optics teams, though other materials have uses. x.com … Show more
LightPath Technologies is expensive against its sales, trading at about 13x sales versus the 5x its industry usually gets. At 5x trailing sales, fair value is $5.23-$6.65, leaving the $13.64 price 105% above the high end. This is a valuation-levels view only, based on reported earnings and revenue estimates rather than fundamental work. x.com
LightPath Technologies offers unique, high-demand optical and infrared technologies vital for defense and industrial applications. x.com
LightPath's strategic value looks enormous as China restricts rare earths, since it offers the only US alternative to restricted rare-earth materials. nLight's sudden China supply issues, which its management said could spill into defense and high-energy lasers, show China trying to slow the US defense industry. LightPath is also moving up the value chain into cameras built with its proprietary glass, and a recent acquisition lets it make much larger optics for markets such as satellites. x.com
LightPath's smart offering clears a large holder out of the cap table. Per @fundmyfund, it is only about 5.5% dilution; the other half is a block sale at a firm $14 moving that holder's shares to institutions that will hopefully stay for the next three to five years. A similar FPS offering was followed by a strong run; LightPath should look similar, less quickly, in about two to three weeks, as FPS has data center tailwinds. Target is $20-25 this year, much higher longer term. x.com x.com x.com
LightPath Technologies' NGSRI work is a big deal and the reason to keep holding. As @BussinBiotech highlights, management says the Defense Logistics Agency is funding LightPath to accelerate commercialization of BlackDiamond materials, made under an exclusive license to Naval Research Laboratory designs that can replace germanium one for one. LightPath is racing defense customers to integrate them into as many systems as possible, easing germanium supply and improving performance. x.com
LightPath Technologies looks mispriced because most still value it as an optics components shop while it is becoming the domestic infrared supply chain. Its BlackDiamond chalcogenide glass replaces germanium, which China put under export controls, and it is moving from selling lenses to selling imaging systems. Last quarter revenue rose 109%, gross margin rose 700bps to 36%, adjusted EBITDA turned positive and backlog hit a record ~$110M. The re-rate comes from the mix, not the multiple. x.com
LightPath's growth should stay very good but slow from about 100% year over year, and dilution is heavier than modeled, moderately lowering future share-price projections. Two raises and North Run's Series G conversions lifted shares to about 70M, with ~3M more to come; projected shares now rise from 71.5M in 2026 to 90M by 2029. A Lockheed NGSRI win this fall could anchor $50–100M a year, but wins typically become revenue 10–18 months later, and space revenue is likely mid-2028 at the earliest. … Show more
LightPath Technologies trades at 6.3x FY2027 analyst revenue, half nLIGHT's 13x on essentially the same small-cap defense photonics setup. NDAA Section 834 requires the Pentagon to drop optical glass from China, Russia and others by 2030, and LightPath holds the only US chalcogenide glass licensed from the Naval Research Laboratory. After Q3 revenue rose 109%, analysts lifted FY2027 revenue 27% to $106M. Risks include G5 earnout charges, a $200M shelf and a plant in China. x.com x.com
