LightPath Technologies is a good long-term buy because revenue has doubled while its valuation is now below $600 million. It is hard to see it not doing well long term; LightPath still looks like a $10 billion company in five years. x.com  x.com 

LightPath's counter-drone deliveries could significantly lift revenue in the upcoming report if their monthly cadence began mid-last quarter. Sam Rubin said two systems are moving toward tens of deliveries monthly; Trust Automation is almost definitely one, but the ramp is unknown. Exclusively licensed, DoD-qualified BDNL materials and IR redesign expertise give LightPath a strong moat over generic-material rivals; integrators often lack optics teams, though other materials have uses. x.com  … Show more

LightPath Technologies is expensive against its sales, trading at about 13x sales versus the 5x its industry usually gets. At 5x trailing sales, fair value is $5.23-$6.65, leaving the $13.64 price 105% above the high end. This is a valuation-levels view only, based on reported earnings and revenue estimates rather than fundamental work. x.com 

LightPath's production-scale drone-optics order signals further demand as the industry shifts from germanium. The order is now estimated at $15M-17.5M based on program economics, down from an initial $20M-plus estimate; the customer remains unconfirmed after an initial Anduril guess. Rubin and Miranda's 2.975M options at a $10.53 strike vest on a buyout, making $7-$9 bids unattractive; a meaningful payout needs a price in the mid-teens or $20s. More orders are expected. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

LightPath Technologies' NGSRI work is a big deal and the reason to keep holding. As @BussinBiotech highlights, management says the Defense Logistics Agency is funding LightPath to accelerate commercialization of BlackDiamond materials, made under an exclusive license to Naval Research Laboratory designs that can replace germanium one for one. LightPath is racing defense customers to integrate them into as many systems as possible, easing germanium supply and improving performance. x.com 

LightPath's smart offering clears a large holder out of the cap table. Per @fundmyfund, it is only about 5.5% dilution; the other half is a block sale at a firm $14 moving that holder's shares to institutions that will hopefully stay for the next three to five years. A similar FPS offering was followed by a strong run; LightPath should look similar, less quickly, in about two to three weeks, as FPS has data center tailwinds. Target is $20-25 this year, much higher longer term. x.com  x.com  x.com 

LightPath Technologies' 20% drop on the Army's delay of its Stinger replacement program is a huge overreaction. Reopening NGSRI to new bidders with a Spring 2027 demo pushes out a contract worth $50-100M a year if Lockheed wins, but it is none of current revenue or the $110M backlog. CEO Sam Rubin says Pentagon funding is coming in some form, and after its $820M loan to Performance Drone Works, the Pentagon said similar deals would follow. 75%+ of American drones carry LightPath optics. x.com 

LightPath Technologies trades at 6.3x FY2027 analyst revenue, half nLIGHT's 13x on essentially the same small-cap defense photonics setup. NDAA Section 834 requires the Pentagon to drop optical glass from China, Russia and others by 2030, and LightPath holds the only US chalcogenide glass licensed from the Naval Research Laboratory. After Q3 revenue rose 109%, analysts lifted FY2027 revenue 27% to $106M. Risks include G5 earnout charges, a $200M shelf and a plant in China. x.com  x.com 

The market is punishing LightPath as if it lost the NGSRI contract, which is definitely not the case. LightPath's CEO indicated recently that the NGSRI down-selection is still happening this year, and his comment about needing a few more months reads as two to four months, not a delay into FY2028 to onboard a competitor. Lockheed's Quadstar already appears to have C2 integration, while Anduril has no off-the-shelf solution ready for spring flight demonstrations. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

LightPath's strategic value looks enormous as China restricts rare earths, since it offers the only US alternative to restricted rare-earth materials. nLight's sudden China supply issues, which its management said could spill into defense and high-energy lasers, show China trying to slow the US defense industry. LightPath is also moving up the value chain into cameras built with its proprietary glass, and a recent acquisition lets it make much larger optics for markets such as satellites. x.com