Bussin Science Investor
Investor Focused on Risk/Reward
The market is punishing LightPath as if it lost the NGSRI contract, which is definitely not the case. LightPath's CEO indicated recently that the NGSRI down-selection is still happening this year, and his comment about needing a few more months reads as two to four months, not a delay into FY2028 to onboard a competitor. Lockheed's Quadstar already appears to have C2 integration, while Anduril has no off-the-shelf solution ready for spring flight demonstrations. x.com x.com x.com x.com
The Army's wider search for Stinger replacement sources need not derail Lockheed Martin and LightPath on NGSRI, since few rivals could be production-ready by spring 2027. Per the Army notice, a spring 2027 demonstration may lead to a procurement award. Speculative readings: RTX is out and the DoD still wants competing makers, so Lockheed wins on time with a second maker later; a delay to add a third; or price pressure on incumbents. LightPath has worked on NGSRI with Lockheed since 2023. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
LightPath Technologies' 20% drop on the Army's delay of its Stinger replacement program is a huge overreaction. Reopening NGSRI to new bidders with a Spring 2027 demo pushes out a contract worth $50-100M a year if Lockheed wins, but it is none of current revenue or the $110M backlog. CEO Sam Rubin says Pentagon funding is coming in some form, and after its $820M loan to Performance Drone Works, the Pentagon said similar deals would follow. 75%+ of American drones carry LightPath optics. x.com
LightPath's production-scale drone-optics order signals further demand as the industry shifts from germanium. The order is now estimated at $15M-17.5M based on program economics, down from an initial $20M-plus estimate; the customer remains unconfirmed after an initial Anduril guess. Rubin and Miranda's 2.975M options at a $10.53 strike vest on a buyout, making $7-$9 bids unattractive; a meaningful payout needs a price in the mid-teens or $20s. More orders are expected. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Legacy defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing and RTX face new competition that is coming to eat their lunch. @damianplayer notes Anduril built a new Apache-launched drone weapon in six months that flies 286 miles and, in one version, hits as hard as a Hellfire missile, when defense projects used to take 20 years. An Anduril IPO is more exciting than SpaceX's. x.com
LightPath Technologies' NGSRI work is a big deal and the reason to keep holding. As @BussinBiotech highlights, management says the Defense Logistics Agency is funding LightPath to accelerate commercialization of BlackDiamond materials, made under an exclusive license to Naval Research Laboratory designs that can replace germanium one for one. LightPath is racing defense customers to integrate them into as many systems as possible, easing germanium supply and improving performance. x.com
LightPath's growth should stay very good but slow from about 100% year over year, and dilution is heavier than modeled, moderately lowering future share-price projections. Two raises and North Run's Series G conversions lifted shares to about 70M, with ~3M more to come; projected shares now rise from 71.5M in 2026 to 90M by 2029. A Lockheed NGSRI win this fall could anchor $50–100M a year, but wins typically become revenue 10–18 months later, and space revenue is likely mid-2028 at the earliest. … Show more
LightPath's path into laser counter-drone systems is more direct than assumed, though it is not yet a laser-weapons program win. Its investor materials list directed-energy weapon integration within C-UAS, with its IR cameras acting as the eyes that detect and track targets. Backlog rose from $37.4M to $110.6M, and it won an $11M follow-on C-UAS camera order. The Pentagon's DIU Bridge Program, meant to speed prototypes into production, could help, but real design wins and volumes are needed. … Show more
When wars drag on, the sensors and components inside weapons platforms make the money, which favors nLIGHT, LightPath and RFHIC. On March 3, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, KOSPI crashed 7.24% while sensor makers such as RFHIC rallied alongside platform names. RF power amplifiers inside radars such as Cheongung-II's are the bottleneck, and RFHIC signed a KRW 50.6 billion amplifier contract with Raytheon Canada. The same InP, GaAs and GaN wafers go into lasers, radars and IR sensors. x.com … Show more
LightPath Technologies trades at 6.3x FY2027 analyst revenue, half nLIGHT's 13x on essentially the same small-cap defense photonics setup. NDAA Section 834 requires the Pentagon to drop optical glass from China, Russia and others by 2030, and LightPath holds the only US chalcogenide glass licensed from the Naval Research Laboratory. After Q3 revenue rose 109%, analysts lifted FY2027 revenue 27% to $106M. Risks include G5 earnout charges, a $200M shelf and a plant in China. x.com x.com
LightPath's strategic value looks enormous as China restricts rare earths, since it offers the only US alternative to restricted rare-earth materials. nLight's sudden China supply issues, which its management said could spill into defense and high-energy lasers, show China trying to slow the US defense industry. LightPath is also moving up the value chain into cameras built with its proprietary glass, and a recent acquisition lets it make much larger optics for markets such as satellites. x.com
The selloff in smaller space stocks after SpaceX's IPO is an opportunity: it was mechanical rotation into the new benchmark, not a rerating, as Rocket Lab was sold the week it joined the Nasdaq 100. Satellites bill monthly for years while rockets get paid once; AST SpaceMobile stands out with approval and launch cadence. SpaceX is the core holding, Rocket Lab's Neutron the second-mover bet; Firefly, Virgin Galactic and Momentus are lottery tickets or survival cases. Suppliers are ballast. x.com … Show more
