LightPath's counter-drone deliveries could significantly lift revenue in the upcoming report if their monthly cadence began mid-last quarter. Sam Rubin said two systems are moving toward tens of deliveries monthly; Trust Automation is almost definitely one, but the ramp is unknown. Exclusively licensed, DoD-qualified BDNL materials and IR redesign expertise give LightPath a strong moat over generic-material rivals; integrators often lack optics teams, though other materials have uses. x.com  … Show more

LightPath's large drone-camera optics order validates its ability to scale production for military thermal imaging. An unnamed key defense customer ordered over 50,000 optical assemblies amid accelerating U.S. drone procurement; assemblies grew from 23% of FY2025 revenue to 44% in FY2026. x.com 

Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The European Space Agency's selection of Rift Dynamics is fresh validation for Ondas's strategic drone investment. Ondas owns 10% of Rift, and American Robotics is the sole US distributor of its Wåsp FPV platform; the ESA's goal is ten minutes of reliable operation without GNSS, likely using Wåsp, though the platform is not confirmed. x.com 

When wars drag on, the sensors and components inside weapons platforms make the money, which favors nLIGHT, LightPath and RFHIC. On March 3, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, KOSPI crashed 7.24% while sensor makers such as RFHIC rallied alongside platform names. RF power amplifiers inside radars such as Cheongung-II's are the bottleneck, and RFHIC signed a KRW 50.6 billion amplifier contract with Raytheon Canada. The same InP, GaAs and GaN wafers go into lasers, radars and IR sensors. x.com  … Show more

Ondas's new Regna AI venture could make its acquired defense systems work together more effectively by putting mission-trained AI directly on drones, balloons, robots and vessels, even without connectivity. Built on Palantir AIP with Palantir engineering support, it extends SkyWeaver; Ondas is the first customer. Outside customer wins and expanding software spend remain the test. If they materialize, recurring software could make the short case harder to defend. x.com 

Ondas is shifting from drone hardware toward higher-margin AI software and data services, which supports a re-rating. Its Cyberhawk unit renewed and deepened an exclusive three-year deal with SSE for power-grid drone inspections, expanding into offshore wind via its iHawk platform. Ondas bought defense tech firms Insignito, Ottopia Defense and Caribou Labs, and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $525–550M. Even so, its forward P/S trades at a discount to defense-tech peers. x.com 

Ondas' long-term opportunity extends beyond drones into growing counter-drone and unmanned ground vehicle markets. Broad industry estimates for these markets rise from $90.6B in 2025 to $210B by 2033, with counter-drone systems the fastest-growing segment at 26.8% annually. That total is neither Ondas revenue nor its own addressable market and may include overlap. Bullish on the company's future, but execution must earn conviction. x.com  x.com 

Counter-drone defense is in its early stages, with much more deployment to come to protect critical infrastructure, and LightPath Technologies, MS International and Guerrilla RF are good ways to play it. Mikhail Khodorkovsky notes Ukrainian drones are hitting practically every major refinery in European Russia, with even the Moscow refinery not covered by air defense. x.com 

LightPath's path into laser counter-drone systems is more direct than assumed, though it is not yet a laser-weapons program win. Its investor materials list directed-energy weapon integration within C-UAS, with its IR cameras acting as the eyes that detect and track targets. Backlog rose from $37.4M to $110.6M, and it won an $11M follow-on C-UAS camera order. The Pentagon's DIU Bridge Program, meant to speed prototypes into production, could help, but real design wins and volumes are needed. … Show more