Slower neoclouds such as CoreWeave face an uphill battle against SpaceX's faster data-center buildout. Demand may be effectively unlimited, but falling a year or two behind creates a $5-10B cash cost disadvantage they may not survive. Some could still pull off a miracle; SpaceX itself competes as a neocloud and has no reason to buy firms that cannot build data centers. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's Terafab chips, compute, Starlink, Grok and X distribution could underpin a vertically integrated personal agent. A home computer would keep private memory and run Grok bots; a direct-to-cell phone would supply its senses. Longer term, SpaceX could bring Neuralink into the fold, shifting those senses to the body. If SpaceX and Tesla do not merge, SpaceX should outperform Tesla over the next few years and decades; its mission, goals and plans are vastly more exciting right now. x.com  … Show more

SpaceX needs new company equity because the math for its 20 GW plans does not work otherwise. A possible Tesla merger would take too long for its KPIs, even as SpaceX is beating CoreWeave and Cerebras. A huge primary offering by SpaceX, Meta or Alphabet ahead of Anthropic's IPO is considered nearly certain, though the issuer is uncertain. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Intel's foundry may be closer than the market assumes because its UMC 12nm partnership brings external-customer experience and a more customer-friendly design kit. Musk said Terafab plans to use Intel 14A, with Tesla and SpaceX building and running the fabs themselves; that would be an important outside test. Intel still must prove yields, volume and schedules, while Terafab's commercial terms remain unclear. Still bullish, but not enough to add now. x.com 

SpaceX's cheap capital and hardware execution give its compute buildout an edge over neoclouds and megacaps. It is quickly becoming the world's largest compute supplier: its 2033 bonds pay 5.65% versus 9.625% on CoreWeave's 2032 notes, and it deployed 110,000 GB300s at Colossus II in 64 days. It targets 10GW to "maybe" 20GW in 2027. One of Anthropic's biggest compute suppliers, SpaceX has up to $120.5B in estimated commitments through 2029, cancellable on 90 days' notice after early 2027. x.com 

SpaceX's revenue ambitions look implausible against current sales and the risk of overbuilding chips. Revenue is $14 billion this quarter, and even the Street's $120 billion forecast for next year looks aggressive. Its costs are within its control, leaving the risk heavily skewed against investors. x.com 

Heavily indebted businesses with negative cash flow are vulnerable to SpaceX's competition. SpaceX will eventually wipe all of them out. x.com 

SpaceX's path to an incremental 20 gigawatts of compute next year adds capacity-driven upside to its long-term case, according to Elon Musk. x.com 

SpaceX's 10 GW compute target demands enormous capital spending. It alone would have to reach $500B in capex to meet the goal. x.com 

SpaceX's near-monopoly in global satellite internet, built on reusable rockets, should generate enormous cash flow to partly fund its AI compute buildout. Those cash flows should strengthen its credit profile and let it finance the rest more cheaply than pure-play neoclouds CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, which SpaceX makes obsolete. Grok ensures deployed compute earns revenue if customers back out. There is no reason to own a pure-play neocloud when SpaceX is available. x.com  x.com