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Crypto Market Commentary
Unusual Machines and LightPath Technologies should benefit massively as drone funding accelerates regardless of the midterms, since it has bipartisan support. Michael Sikand notes that Democrats, who backed Ukraine war funding, could pass bigger and faster aid packages if they win a chamber, and that nearly all drone bills, such as the American Security Drone Act and the COUNTER Act, have Democratic and Republican co-sponsors. Both companies are US-made, US-owned drone suppliers. x.comÂ
The value and strategic importance of drones is still underestimated, because drones raise the cost of defense and lower the cost of attack. @BlackScholesMan calls it an inflection point after a drone downed a manned aircraft and another drone rescued its pilots, an accelerant for everything that comes next in the drone industry. x.comÂ
Drone stocks could go on a tear this fall because drone funding is bipartisan, so a likely Democratic midterm win shouldn't derail the trade. Democrats backed Ukraine war funding and could pass bigger, faster aid. Drone bills, from the Chinese-drone ban to the COUNTER Act, have co-sponsors from both parties, so drones and counter-drones are the least contested part of the $1.5T budget. Nearly every drone stock beat and raised, yet sentiment is still depressed. LightPath stands out. x.com x.com … Show more
Drone stocks are next in line for administration backing, after semiconductors and quantum ran when the President pointed investors to them. Dell, Intel, AMD and Marvell rose 200% after the semis call, and quantum names surged on government grants. The President is buying, then telling investors what to buy, so Unusual Machines, Kratos, Ondas, Red Cat, AeroVironment, AIRO and AgEagle are the names to own over the next three years. x.comÂ
Drone and autonomy stocks are where government money is going next, as Trump pursues funding deals to boost domestic drone production. Dell is up over 50% since Trump said to buy it, and drone names could do the same once he announces picks. The list spans AeroVironment, Kratos, Red Cat, Ondas, Draganfly, Unusual Machines, Swarmer and Palladyne AI; counter-drone names DroneShield and L3Harris; and primes Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Textron, General Dynamics and Boeing. x.com x.comÂ
LightPath's counter-drone deliveries could significantly lift revenue in the upcoming report if their monthly cadence began mid-last quarter. Sam Rubin said two systems are moving toward tens of deliveries monthly; Trust Automation is almost definitely one, but the ramp is unknown. Exclusively licensed, DoD-qualified BDNL materials and IR redesign expertise give LightPath a strong moat over generic-material rivals; integrators often lack optics teams, though other materials have uses. x.com … Show more
Unusual Machines faces near-infinite drone component demand even if war ends and defense goes away. Replacing DJI alone is a $10B enterprise drone market, implying $3B+ for component makers and perhaps $13-15B in 4-5 years, mostly going to one or two leading suppliers. Besides scaling execution, the biggest risk is that drone makers shrink to one or two in five years and in-source their supply chain, though a US market this vast is unlikely to be served by only two. x.comÂ
Drone makers stand to benefit as the Pentagon prepares to take equity stakes in them under a $1B Drone Dominance Program targeting 300,000 attack drones by 2027; when the government funds a theme, early investors win. The ecosystem spans tactical leaders AeroVironment and Kratos, autonomous systems providers AEVEX and Ondas, modular drone and software maker Red Cat, and domestic parts maker Unusual Machines. x.comÂ
LightPath's large drone-camera optics order validates its ability to scale production for military thermal imaging. An unnamed key defense customer ordered over 50,000 optical assemblies amid accelerating U.S. drone procurement; assemblies grew from 23% of FY2025 revenue to 44% in FY2026. x.comÂ
Drones and robotics still look to have more upside as autonomy becomes real deployment rather than sci-fi, favoring Cognex, Red Cat, Ouster and Unusual Machines. Drones, sensors and real-world robotics deployments are lining up, and the administration is looking to fund parts of the drone ecosystem. The 2026 winners shared a filter of physical scarcity, non-negotiable demand and tape confirmation, and robotics and autonomy stand as their own megatrend, likely after some digestion first. x.comÂ
Rising government spending on drones and counter-UAS makes drone and counter-drone companies such as LightPath, Ondas, Unusual Machines, Red Cat and Kopin broad beneficiaries. The UK announced a major defense increase including more than GBP5 billion for drones and autonomous systems, plus further counter-UAS and air defense investment. AeroVironment, Kratos and the primes also benefit, though primes are boring. x.com x.comÂ
Trump's 100% tariffs on foreign-made drones should send demand soaring for US drone makers and suppliers. AeroVironment has a $1.2B funded backlog; Kratos has a $2.1B backlog and jet drones with no foreign substitute; Ondas, the fastest grower, posted a record $83.8M quarter. Red Cat's Black Widow is an Army program of record, Unusual Machines makes 15,000 NDAA-compliant motors a month, AIRO has a $163M drone backlog and LightPath's US-made infrared optics become the default. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
