Chip and memory stocks including Micron, Sandisk, Arm, NVIDIA and Broadcom look set to rally on a possible Chinese reopening to NVIDIA. Per @StockSavvyShay, China is weighing letting domestic firms buy NVIDIA's new RTX Pro 5500, with ByteDance reportedly considering about 1 million chips as local AI demand outruns supply. NVIDIA's AI share in China had fallen from about 95% to nearly zero. x.com 

Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com  x.com  x.com 

China's domestic market lets YMTC and CXMT threaten Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix without entering US products. China receives 15-25% of smartphones and PCs and is on a path to at least 20-30% memory share over the next several years; current leaders are much too optimistic. History suggests at least a near-term semiconductor rally even if the AI trade has topped. It likely has not: agentic AI should give the trade room to run into 2027. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Low PEG ratios and continuing AI demand make leading AI stocks attractive after rolling corrections. Nvidia is at 0.39x PEG, Amazon 0.64x, Broadcom 0.66x, Micron 0.73x, Oracle 0.59x and TSMC 0.41x. This usually signals at least a local bottom, possibly a major one; midterm-year seasonality helps into year-end. Nvidia, Broadcom and Amazon remain favorites; Micron and TSMC look buyable on dips. Low PEG can mislead if growth slows or estimates are wrong. x.com 

AI skepticism leaves Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron looking cheap on forward earnings. Their forward P/E ratios are 14, 18 and 5, respectively; the market may eventually stop doubting AI. x.com 

Financing risk makes AI-linked growth stocks unattractive to add here. Much of the money reaching suppliers such as Nvidia and Micron is financed, so harder funding would limit spending on chips, compute and memory. The buildout is not over, but stock prices could remain suppressed until it slows. A significant drawdown would make adding appealing; for many high-beta names with weak fundamentals and balance sheets, the highs look to be in. x.com 

Improving earnings and more attractive valuations favor AI infrastructure names Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom and TSMC. Goldman Sachs charts put memory stocks at about 4 times two-year forward earnings versus an 8 times median, and large fabless chip stocks at about 13 times versus 18 times. x.com 

Strong AI demand and hyperscaler spending make the selloff a mid-cycle correction despite neocloud financing stress. Widening CCC spreads expose leveraged firms to higher borrowing costs; US competition with China supports AI buildout. The base case is a bottom in roughly 5-7 days, then stabilization and eventually a broader reversal, though some projects may fail and valuations compress. IREN, Cipher, Nebius, Applied Digital, Micron, AMD, ASML and Intel are worth gradually accumulating. x.com 

NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron and TSMC should be worth less because AI risk has risen while the expected reward has not. The CEOs of Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX and Tesla have said AI risks killing all humans and needs to slow down, yet not a single analyst cut ratings or price targets on these chipmakers. In game-theory terms, higher risk with the same reward makes the bet worse. x.com 

Semiconductor leaders look better placed than high-beta stocks with poor company models. TSMC, ASML, Nvidia and memory should lead the sector and belong in the buy basket, with Broadcom not far behind. The CPU basket is only a hold: much of its upside was priced in during Intel and AMD's run. x.com