Kairos
Stock Research
McCoy Global looks attractive after a beating this year from war, balance sheet worries and a paused dividend, though conviction is low. Its excellent product suite should win as Middle East drilling picks up, since adding technology is easier than scaling up manpower, making McCoy the clear winner. The catch is timing: the big contracts could come tomorrow or in a year, and whether orders land in Q3, Q4 or next year nobody knows. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Oil supply disruption will take months to resolve even if the ceasefire holds, and Venture Global's fundamentals are stronger than ever. The stock fell 25% as a ceasefire became expected, after a 155% run this year, for valid reasons. Destroyed infrastructure and output halted for safety will take months to return to full production; per The Kobeissi Letter, attacks cut Saudi Arabia's oil capacity by 600,000 barrels a day. If the ceasefire or a lasting peace fails, Venture Global benefits. x.comÂ
Occidental Petroleum is mispriced at about 8.4x trailing earnings and an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock. Eight times earnings in an oil shock is not a valuation but a clerical error with a ticker symbol. Iran cannot beat the US Navy, so it is waiting out America's vote in 49 days, since Iran does not vote until 2028; owning Occidental beats hiding in Treasuries. x.comÂ
UAE equities look oversold, with the core ETF down 20% in a month on panic selling detached from reality. Pressure is on the Trump administration to end the conflict quickly, and a long war looks unlikely given falling strikes. Afterward, Gulf states may invest less in US markets and more at home, while strong-cash-flow energy, utility, bank and real estate stocks fit a value revival and maturing investment infrastructure. Risk remains considerable, so buying gradually suits the volatility. … Show more
Targa Resources entered the top group of AI-selected US stocks with a score of 92, as a US oil and gas company with strong technicals and massive net profit growth over the past year. Plays like this will likely also be tied to the length and impact of the Iran war. x.comÂ
Transocean looks compelling because offshore drillers trade like distressed cyclicals even as they add backlog. It sits near 0.93x book and 1.8x sales, with generalists scarred by 2020-21 bankruptcies, yet it has added about $1.6B of backlog since April, with recent day rates near $550k. Management guides utilization above 90% by late 2026, near 100% in 2027, and approval of the Valaris merger could re-rate it. Oil is the key risk: WTI below about $60 would bring capex cuts. x.comÂ
Harmonic Drive Systems could lose its leading actuator position, since a rapidly growing market may need simpler products to scale, and its valuation is extremely high. x.comÂ
