Growth stocks should retake the lead from value stocks once the war ends. Per data from @charliebilello, value has outperformed growth year to date, a stretch that has come with rising energy prices and fading prospects for Fed rate cuts. x.com 

US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com  … Show more

UAE equities have more pain ahead. x.com 

Occidental Petroleum is mispriced at about 8.4x trailing earnings and an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock. Eight times earnings in an oil shock is not a valuation but a clerical error with a ticker symbol. Iran cannot beat the US Navy, so it is waiting out America's vote in 49 days, since Iran does not vote until 2028; owning Occidental beats hiding in Treasuries. x.com 

McCoy Global looks attractive after a beating this year from war, balance sheet worries and a paused dividend, though conviction is low. Its excellent product suite should win as Middle East drilling picks up, since adding technology is easier than scaling up manpower, making McCoy the clear winner. The catch is timing: the big contracts could come tomorrow or in a year, and whether orders land in Q3, Q4 or next year nobody knows. x.com  x.com  x.com 

US small caps are leading the market, a sign of appetite for risk-on from here. The market clearly wants the Iran conflict wrapped up and the Strait of Hormuz cleared. When Iran's denial came out, stocks sold off only partly and with less momentum, suggesting the market can see beyond negotiations to some kind of peace deal. x.com 

US energy stocks face pressure as the US-Iran memorandum of understanding reopens the Strait of Hormuz and lifts the US naval blockade. WTI broke below $80 from near $87 and could head toward $70, as oil, Treasury yields and the dollar broke lower together. Energy was the hardest-hit sector, while airlines rallied on relief from fuel costs. Lower oil eases inflation expectations, with headline CPI at 4.2% but core only 2.9%, removing pressure for Fed hikes. x.com  x.com 

There is a reasonable chance, about 35%, of a 10-15% drawdown in the Nasdaq and Magnificent 7 before year-end, alongside a return of value investing. Jim Chanos' chart reinforces the setup for what triggers a drawdown in tech-dense passive indexes, which buy indiscriminately by market cap when dollars come in and sell the same way when they leave. x.com  x.com 

Uranium has a second window of opportunity because the Iran war showed energy-importing countries they must control their own power. The Hormuz crisis spiked energy prices worldwide, and Korea, Taiwan and even Germany are moving back to nuclear, which runs 24/7 with zero carbon and stores years of national power in a small space. After Fukushima, uranium fell to $16 a pound against roughly $40 production costs. Rick Rule says the war opened a new window, and the stocks have not caught up. x.com  … Show more

Oil could perk up some from here on Strait of Hormuz tensions, but the tail risk of a giant spike looks low. Both sides want to avoid a full restart of the war, and Saudi and UAE pipelines are moving a lot of oil. @FahadHandle remains concerned that shipping volume is still well below average and that a lasting closure would eventually force countries off strategic reserves into export bans and rationing. x.com