Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com 

UAE equities look oversold, with the core ETF down 20% in a month on panic selling detached from reality. Pressure is on the Trump administration to end the conflict quickly, and a long war looks unlikely given falling strikes. Afterward, Gulf states may invest less in US markets and more at home, while strong-cash-flow energy, utility, bank and real estate stocks fit a value revival and maturing investment infrastructure. Risk remains considerable, so buying gradually suits the volatility. … Show more

The oil trade is over because crude can no longer make higher highs, even with Middle East crude exports back near their peaks. Oil is trading around its average price of the last eight months and set a lower high in September, so it is only a matter of time before the market gives up. Crude looks about to fall through the floor, with rates following and high-beta stocks then going vertical as every dip gets bought. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The Iran war, rising oil prices and inflationary pressure do not yet look severe enough to trigger a major economic crisis. Despite some deterioration in the macro picture and short-term volatility, the broader picture remains relatively healthy and the long-term outlook for US large-cap and Nasdaq 100 stocks is very positive. x.com 

Far less inflated valuations and significant AI earnings make US equities unlike the dot-com market top. AI/SI spending may still be overexuberant. Rates and yields have returned to historical averages; more oil through the Strait of Hormuz and from OPEC and Russia should lower oil and inflation. The market may not have bottomed yet, but falling yields, steady rates and the midterms passing should let it climb the wall of worry. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rotation from growth into value is bearish for the S&P 500 in the near term. That normal shift prompted a defensive stance given growth-heavy portfolio exposure, not a bearish call on the broader stock bull market. A pullback could form a higher low and offer a buying opportunity at key levels. x.com 

Growth stocks should keep outperforming small caps because rising rates now hurt small caps far more. Large-cap and AI-linked growth companies are cash-rich and lightly financed, while about a third of Russell 2000 debt is floating-rate versus roughly 6% for the S&P 500. As hike expectations returned, small caps' lead over the S&P 500 shrank from about 11 points in June to about 2, and IWM tracks long bonds far more than QQQ. The ARKK/IWM ratio has reclaimed its rising 20-month Bollinger basis. … Show more

Tech stocks should recover to near all-time highs at or after earnings season, since they trade at historically low valuations of 16-22x forward earnings despite strong growth. Value stocks' fundamentals have weakened significantly from already expensive levels. Markets are pricing the worst-case war scenario, but both sides are negotiating and the US holds the cards. x.com 

US energy stocks are being steadily accumulated after a 17-year base, and that base will not resolve in a month. The sector broke out this year and pulled back on contracting volume, which is digestion, not distribution. Energy trades near 13x earnings versus about 20x for hyperscalers. Stocks now rise with oil and get bought back when oil falls. Tech is priced for the cost of capital to come down; energy for the reason it will not. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Robinhood, Nebius, Cipher Mining, Amprius, Bloom Energy, Ondas, TE and AST SpaceMobile are down hard on macro fear over the Iran war, not fundamentals, while their businesses have never been stronger. High-beta names were sold hardest, from Amprius down 20% to TE down 64% from their highs. When the war ends and fear fades, they should snap back fast rather than drift. The window between fear and recovery is where generational returns are made. x.com