An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com 

US energy stocks should catch a bid now that Iran's IRGC navy has closed the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely, effectively a blockade. About 20% of global oil supply moves through it, including crude from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE, with no alternative route for that volume. Tanker insurance should spike and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds weeks on stretched supply, pushing crude higher. Fertilizer and plastics costs get squeezed, complicating the Fed's inflation view. x.com  … Show more

UAE equities look oversold, with the core ETF down 20% in a month on panic selling detached from reality. Pressure is on the Trump administration to end the conflict quickly, and a long war looks unlikely given falling strikes. Afterward, Gulf states may invest less in US markets and more at home, while strong-cash-flow energy, utility, bank and real estate stocks fit a value revival and maturing investment infrastructure. Risk remains considerable, so buying gradually suits the volatility. … Show more

Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

US large-cap equities face only bad and catastrophic outcomes, because the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz has created a physical oil shortage that headlines can't fix. Even if Trump ceded control to Iran, months of disruption would follow, as insurers need sovereign guarantees to underwrite an Iranian toll system. Structural inflation from the war should keep central banks paused and weaken businesses and consumers; a 2022-style path lower with relief rallies looks likely. x.com  x.com 

The Strait of Hormuz situation looks bad for oil supply, because Iran has the leverage to keep control of it and collect tolls. Iranian drones have changed the equation despite substantial US air and naval power, there has been no uprising, and any ground invasion would take very long. Saudi Arabia and Qatar lack the naval muscle and rely on the US, and new pipelines take years, so affected countries will have to play ball for at least a few years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com