CyclesFan
Market Cycle Analysis
Silver's bearish signal is the huge number of likes on Rashad Hajiyev's $200 call, pointing instead to $20 over the next three years. The final low is due in late 2029 to early 2030 under the dominant seven-year cycle, whose lows came in 2001, 2008, 2015 and 2022; the 2020 Covid low was an anomaly, not a four-year cycle. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Silver's bear market should run all the way to $30 at the next seven-year cycle low in late 2029, because the Iran war has ended the bubble in precious metals. The crashes since the January top came even though the dollar made little progress. The pattern repeats 2011: then a 48% crash, a bounce and a double bottom at $26; now a 50% crash, a bounce and a double bottom at $61. A stronger bounce to as high as $94 could come next, and silver likely won't fall below $50 soon, maybe by fall 2027. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Silver's earlier mass euphoria could give way to comparable pain, leaving it attractive only at $25-$35. A correction of 75% or more has historically been normal; reaching that range may take time, and it may never happen. x.comÂ
Silver's 30% rally off its lows was likely the bulk of the move in this 20-week cycle, and metals should weaken as the dollar index rallies off its 80-day cycle low toward 100. Silver hit the $72 target and fell 6.8% in three hours. Cycles point to a 40-day low in early September, a bounce, then a 20-week low around October, with $48-49 the ideal fall target. September is the seasonal peak and October to mid-November is typically bearish; if the dollar regains 100, metals will struggle. x.com … Show more
Silver's supply shortfall should ultimately help drive its price higher. A commenter cites a projected 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Supply should remain tight in coming months, though negative trading and fear of further losses are driving investors to sell for now. x.com x.comÂ
Gold remains bullish because its correction and investor washout fit the expected cycle reset before the next major move. After two strong years, the projected cycle low is approaching, making the shakeout a setup within gold's multi-year cycle rather than a break in the long-term trend. x.com x.comÂ
Silver's predicted third sell-off is well advanced, and an AI-induced bust could drag it lower first, though there is a small chance it is near its last local low. Longer term, the falling wedge will likely resolve as an upside continuation pattern. @DonDurrett expects sub-$60 silver and sub-$4,000 gold as Chinese appetite fades, with the correction likely not over. x.com x.comÂ
Capital is rotating out of AI capex into areas it starved for two years. Health care, airlines, defense and metals are where the market wants to be for the six weeks to the December 9 Fed meeting; gold and silver are bought on every dip. Risk is still being taken elsewhere: if S&P futures hold 7,700, the rotation carries the index; if they lose it, this was a correction in disguise. x.comÂ
Silver is setting up for a violent dump, nearer the end of its run than the beginning. After a 140%+ rise in 2026, with gold moving first and "silver is still cheap" everywhere, the setup echoes 2011, when silver ran from $18 to $49 and collapsed once leverage peaked and liquidity vanished. Real deficits and industrial demand attract more leverage rather than prevent a crash. In a thin, derivatives-driven market, crowded positioning can cascade into forced selling, though it may rise first. … Show more
Gold, silver and bitcoin are in a cyclical downturn driven by a rallying dollar, even though the secular debasement trade remains on. The dollar index hit a 13-month high, tightening everything priced in dollars and unwinding crowded positions: gold is under $4,000, off about 25%, silver is down about 40% and bitcoin is below $60,000. Over decades fiat erodes, driven by fiscal dominance rather than the Fed's balance sheet, so size for the cycle and position for the secular trend. x.com x.com … Show more
The earlier FX-reserve drain suggests silver is likely to stay trapped until the Fed capitulates if austerity does not arrive. In 1972-74, the correction was 44%, followed by an 18-month trap. A long position after quarters without one remains tentative; austerity would mean exiting or reversing. x.comÂ
Gold has formed a multi-year top at $5.6K and won't return there before 2030. It is in a high-timeframe distribution phase, with trillions of dollars rotating out of gold into US equities, bitcoin and Chinese equities, fueling the next risk-on environment. Silver showed a classic blow-off top, and the same applies to gold. x.comÂ
