degentrading
Former TradFi Options Market Maker, Delegate at Lido DAO
Photonics and co-packaged optics stocks such as Lumentum have more room to correct, because a single SemiAnalysis report was enough to spook the market. SemiAnalysis claims Nvidia's Kyber rack will be delayed by its PCB midplane, which reads as negative for CPO suppliers counting on that ramp, though Nvidia has not confirmed it. x.com x.com
POET Technologies and Sivers, as co-packaged optics pure plays, lose because CPO adoption has moved right by a full generation. SemiAnalysis reports Nvidia's flagship Kyber NVL144 rack is delayed over 12 months to 2028 and its NVL72x2 backup was cancelled, while optical scale-up won't arrive until Feynman. Packaging and interconnect hit physical walls in the same cycle, and the entire thesis for these names rests on CPO timing. x.com
Lumentum, AXT and Coherent face potential delays to CPO and 800V, and their charts started flopping as if the stocks knew ahead of time. Per @BULLOFBRITAIN, citing a SemiAnalysis report, CPO and 800V could be pushed back to 2028–29 while NPO potentially accelerates, with caution urged on names including Lumentum. x.com
Co-packaged optics adoption is a matter of when, not if, so any further drop in optics stocks on NVIDIA's delay could be a great entry for those who missed the rally. SemiAnalysis reports NVIDIA's Kyber NVL144 rack has been delayed more than 12 months to 2028 and its NVL72x2 back-to-back architecture cancelled, leaving Rubin Ultra with a limited scale-up domain. x.com
Bizlink is a beneficiary of Nvidia's faster-than-expected co-packaged optics ramp, because CPO carries higher content for it than near-packaged optics. Spectrum-X CPO switches are in mass production as key component yields improve, with scale-out switch shipments forecast at 15k in 4Q26 and 100k in 2027. Scale-up optical engine estimates were revised to 6.5m in 2027 and 42m in 2028, as NVL576 is intact but Trainium 4 is slower. Full NPO adoption is retained for the cycle. x.com x.com
Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com x.com
Photonics and co-packaged optics stocks including Sivers, Lightwave Logic, Almae, Applied Optoelectronics, Aehr, LPKF, Lumentum, Coherent and Soitec benefit as the CPO buildout moves faster than expected. Per @ren_stocks, citing Taiwan's Economic Daily, Foxconn has shipped all-optical CPO switch cabinets to Nvidia early and raised 2026 volume from 10,000 to more than 50,000 units. Its packaging arm Shunsin is expanding a Vietnam plant to 4.5 million units of annual capacity by December 2026. … Show more
Credo Technology's copper interconnects should do well after SemiAnalysis reported that Nvidia's Kyber NVL144 rack has been delayed by more than 12 months to 2028 and its NVL72x2 back-to-back architecture was cancelled, leaving Rubin Ultra with a limited scale-up domain. x.com
Alphabet and Broadcom own the 2027 window because their TPU optical-switching scale-up is the only proven alternative as Nvidia hits packaging and interconnect walls. Per SemiAnalysis, Nvidia's flagship Kyber NVL144 rack slipped over 12 months to 2028 and its NVL72x2 backup was cancelled, while the 2-die Rubin Ultra delivers about half the per-package performance and co-packaged optics won't come until Feynman. That breaks Nvidia's new-rack-every-year promise, the core of its moat premium. x.com
Lumentum stands to gain as the shift from copper to light inside AI data centers accelerates. Co-packaged optics is now in mass production, per TrendForce, with Nvidia shipping Spectrum-X CPO switches. Near-packaged optics is catching on fast; Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston says its demand looks bigger than CPO's and came sooner, now late 2027 or early 2028. He sees about $40 a share of fiscal 2028 earnings power, above Street estimates, with none of CPO or NPO in the numbers yet. x.com
Coherent's booked InP laser capacity gives it a potential path into Nvidia's CPO expansion. Nvidia wants optical-engine capacity up 15x by mid-2027 and holds laser purchase commitments and capacity rights from its $2B Coherent investment. Coherent says fiscal 2027 is essentially booked and customers are reserving into 2028, but most near-term orders are for pluggables and other products; scale-up CPO revenue starts only in H2 2027. Neither company has sized Nvidia's rights. x.com
