Home buying is coming to a screeching halt, pushing homebuilders such as Toll Brothers and KB Home toward recession mode. Headcount reductions, cheaper builds, margin cuts and buyer incentives are likely next. x.com 

Homebuilders and retailers are suffering because housing liquidity has crashed, so people stay and remodel rather than move. Many stocks, from oil to homebuilders to public storage, depend on this mobility trade, and seller-to-buyer spreads are at historic levels. Per @jonbrooks, transaction volume sits near record lows. Rising HELOC use may also signal falling disposable income. x.com 

Ugly housing conditions provide the contrarian sentiment for a major homebuilder bull run over the next 12 months. Bears investing through the rearview mirror are going to be proven wrong. x.com 

Homebuilder stocks are priced for a soft landing that the inventory data doesn't support. New home supply hit 10.3 months, the highest since February 2009, against a long-term median of about 6, after jumping a full month in May. In 6 of the 7 times it reached this level since the 1970s, the US was already in recession. Mortgage rates and record ownership costs keep buyers out, and when builders cut prices hard to clear supply, margins will take the hit and the sector will reprice. x.com  x.com 

Zillow is likely to fall further as home sales decline. The stock has already hit a 52-week low. x.com 

Homebuilders are cyclical stocks tied to interest rates, which makes them unappealing. x.com 

The housing market is about to tank, which hurts homebuilders such as PulteGroup and KB Home. Recent results show net income down 75%, gross margins down 25% and operating margins down 75%, with major discounts needed to clear inventory. Builders citing higher land costs while still buying land at inflated values to build zero-margin homes is bankruptcy writing on the wall. x.com 

Homebuilders should benefit as the dollar falls, yields hit a wall and bonds catch a bid. Industries that gain from fading yields and a weaker dollar should stay the hottest hand for the coming months, and multi-month accumulation without selloffs reveals what the market is pricing in, beyond the headlines. Homebuilders, tied to mortgage companies, generally do well in this period; they may not offer the biggest gains but are less volatile than other lower-dollar plays. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Home Depot and homebuilders look awful and have broken below support. Both offer a lot of value and are way oversold, but they need interest rates, inflation and oil to come down before they can recover. x.com 

Lennar is a bad bet, because housing will not rise while a record affordability crisis is already here, and homebuilders should do poorly in coming quarters. The stock is fighting around $117, its 2021 peak and where its monthly 50-period moving average sits, and a drop below its 2005 level would be a big problem. x.com