AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
Intel shows clear, continued institutional buying that points to further gains. After earnings it gapped to highs not seen in nearly 30 years on its largest daily dollar buy volume ever, then set new records for buy volume last week and again this week. Following that smart money, another 15% move would be no surprise. x.comÂ
Intel still has an edge because smart-money buying is intensifying, not fading, after a 130% gain this year. Volume kept rising as price reversed from record buy volumes at the lows, the highest since 2008, and it gapped above its 2000 all-time high on its largest notional volume ever; 15-minute volume this morning remains extremely elevated with no convicted institutional selling. With a market cap still under $500B, the long-term move is not done. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's data-center and foundry growth could outlast its PC-driven weak guidance. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.3bn and foundry revenue rose 58%, but PCs still account for about half the business and management expects their slowdown through at least the first half of next year. Q4 revenue and margin guidance disappointed, and $0.17 of quarterly EPS came from a mark-to-market gain. The selloff prices in the PC problem, not the turnaround. Overweight; $130 target. x.com x.comÂ
Intel is being bought on the dip by institutions loading up, and could reach all-time highs soon. x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
Server CPU demand amid AI buildouts gives Intel's upcoming Q3 earnings a fundamental role in its bounce setup. The market expects roughly $16.5 billion in revenue; a potential triple bottom at $87 coincides with the 200 EMA, making a decent bounce highly likely from here. JPMorgan upgraded Intel from Underweight to Neutral, citing better execution and valuation. Losing the 200 EMA would invalidate the pattern and be a significant bearish signal. x.comÂ
Intel's growing server profit gives its recovery firmer support, though Q4's margin reset limits extrapolation. Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3B; foundry losses narrowed to $1.85B but remain substantial. Management guides Q4 non-GAAP gross margin to 38% from 44.1% in Q3, while client sales fell 5%. The 14A milestone alone does not establish external foundry commitments. x.comÂ
Intel's turnaround is real, but its valuation already assumes a lot goes right while Foundry has much to prove. Revenue grew 25% to $16.1 billion, data center revenue jumped 59%, and the CEO says Intel can meet only about half of CPU demand, with ASPs up 48%. But Foundry lost $2.1 billion on $5.8 billion of revenue, only $293 million of it external, with no high-volume marquee customer. After a roughly 225% run to $120, Intel is worth about $634 billion, already paying for much of the comeback. … Show more
Intel at $112 is an opportunity not to miss, with a $150-plus target by year end, after earlier chances in Micron, Nokia and Arm. It holds $98 billion of backlog orders for 2027-2031, reports 180% annual revenue growth and has $3 billion of cash reserves. x.comÂ
Intel's CEO buying stock is a strong signal, because insiders sell for many reasons but buy for only one. Per @wallstengine, Lip-Bu Tan bought 105,263 shares at $95, about $10M, lifting his ownership to about 1.33M shares. x.comÂ
Intel looks a tad overvalued near $100, so it is not a buy right now, even though its fundamentals are strong. It is state-backed, demand is so high that lower-grade chips are sold rather than discarded, and its downstream stack, including EMIB packaging, is the strongest in about a decade, possibly outpacing its foundry business per Morgan Stanley reporting. x.comÂ
Intel's CEO just bought $10M of stock at $95, a whale worth following. x.comÂ
