ASE Technology's packaging tightness now extends beyond AI to analog and mature-node chips, supporting price hikes. Lead times are up over 30%; FC/Wirebond/QFN hikes of 10–80% and CoWoS hikes of 10–20% are expected in 3Q–4Q26. Higher AMD server CPU wafer allocation, CoWoS adoption for Venice, Verano and future AMD CPUs, and limited competition support LEAP growth. LEAP revenue is forecast at US$4bn/$8bn in 2026/27, above guidance. The target rises to NT$843 from NT$754 on 25x 2027E EPS. x.com 

Agentic AI demand should drive AMD's 2027 data-center growth well over 100% year on year. Server CPU revenue is forecast to double, with over 5 million Venice units shipping in 2027; Helios racks should ramp mostly in Q1 2027, with over 20,000 expected that year, while MI450/455X volume remains limited by end-2026. Projected 2027 sales are $103bn, with 2027 EPS revised up 15% and a new $720 target at 40x 2027 earnings. x.com 

AMD and Nvidia face a growing capital burden from substrates without the benefit of foundry margin stacking. Each is committing $1 billion to the substrate ecosystem; AMD has also publicly committed $10 billion to its Taiwan supply chain, more than three times its Q2 net income. That capital is unavailable for R&D and product development, while their gross margins are flat or shrinking. Intel's gross margin is growing as customers prepay its foundry for substrates. x.com 

Agentic AI is creating a server CPU shortage, and packaging suppliers tied to CPU growth, such as Amkor and ASE, own the scarce inputs. Agents run tool calls, state and coordination on CPUs, pushing CPU-to-GPU ratios from about 1:8 toward parity, per Intel's CEO. Arm's new data-center CPU demand doubled to $2B in six weeks, and Nvidia began shipping standalone Vera CPUs. That demand hits a supply chain already stretched in wafers, DRAM and advanced packaging, with relief unlikely before 2028. … Show more

AMD's CPU demand looks durable, as industry contacts say it is already selling 2028 volume. Its 2027 Venice bookings first seemed possibly unrealistic, with a risk of overbooking followed by cuts as last year, and yield issues appear far less serious than early reports suggested. x.com 

AMD risks missing large advance rack orders because Helios is still unproven at volume manufacturing. It looked credible on paper at July's Advancing AI, but this is AMD's first rack-scale system; meaningful volume is expected only in 2H27, two quarters past AMD's window. Hyperscalers order racks a year or two before seeing them, and custom inference chips are squeezing AMD from the other side. The photographed Helios rack's cabling underscores how hard it is to build. x.com  x.com 

AT&S looks set to move further into package assembly as substrates and assembly converge. It is expanding in India toward advanced packaging and testing, while AMD, its number one customer, is constantly looking at packaging innovation, per Lisa Su. AT&S already embeds components and silicon bridges inside substrates, so assembling more of the package is a natural evolution. It is reportedly already in talks with SHMD on the India expansion, though nothing is official. x.com  x.com  x.com 

ASE is a long on advanced packaging, as it eyes doubling its leading-edge advanced packaging revenue by 2027. @Colosteve2000 adds that, given the earnings call, a 4x would not be surprising if ASE can bring production up to par fast enough. x.com  x.com 

Insufficient substrate supply may cap AMD's growth because the company has not secured enough capacity. The author says limited substrate availability drove AMD's lowered guidance, making supply-chain execution the constraint on how far it can grow. This adds an execution risk to the earlier concern that AMD is too expensive to buy despite strong results. x.com  x.com 

ASE Technology should hit a new high within a couple of quarters even though it got ahead of itself, because advanced packaging is insanely important. Its EPS is expected to rise from $0.44 in 2025 to $1.80-2.00 next year. x.com