Nick Dorsey
Deals Lead at Compute Exchange, Building Joule14
SanDisk still looks cheap at 19x forward earnings while growing EPS at triple-digit rates, even after shares fell 50% in a month. x.com
Sandisk's earnings growth makes its valuation look unusually low, with guidance showing no slowdown. Revenue rose 378% year over year, and $52.5 GAAP EPS implies a 6.1 annualized P/E, below Micron's. Sandisk's roughly 85% gross margin also compares favorably with SK hynix's apparently sub-50% NAND margin. Next-quarter guidance calls for $12.2 billion-$12.6 billion of revenue and $55-$57 non-GAAP EPS. x.com x.com x.com
SanDisk has likely topped for this cycle, and memory stocks such as Micron are rolling over even though fundamentals still look incredible. In cycles, price weakens first, estimates and targets fall later, and the narrative flips only after the damage is done, with vicious failed rallies along the way. SanDisk already guided lower, its gross margin has plateaued and price action has been terrible, so it likely goes lower. Sell on technicals rather than waiting for fundamentals to erode. x.com … Show more
SanDisk looks quite cheap despite its huge run, because single-digit forward earnings multiples ignore growth of around 100% a year expected over the next two years. A screen for US companies above $10 billion with forward P/Es under 10 and 25%-plus two-year revenue growth yields just seven names, including SanDisk and Micron. Both are cyclical and may not deserve 30–40x forward multiples, but assigning either a single-digit P/E is crazy. x.com x.com
The need for more memory evident in every company's earnings report makes the market's negative view of Sandisk hard to understand. Yet splitting a stock above $1,000 is one of the dumbest moves a company can make: it hands market makers the ability to manipulate the shares through options, a risk for Sandisk. x.com x.com
SanDisk has a long way to fall because it is a budget SSD maker trading at a P/E of 36. The leveraged SanDisk fund is already down 89%. x.com
SanDisk's gross-margin plateau signals long-term discipline, not the cycle peak bears fear. Not squeezing customers, plus balanced capex under its NBM long-term agreement model, avoids overinvesting at the top. Investors should watch volume, not price: while big tech keeps spending and compute stays scarce, memory shortages cannot ease alone, so rising volume and the LTA price floor should grow the profit pool enormously. With buybacks, memory should rerate as essential AI infrastructure. x.com
SanDisk's plateauing gross margin is a deliberate long-term choice, not a sign the cycle has peaked. Per @EhrmantrautCap_, SanDisk could push toward 90% gross margin by squeezing customers but is accepting about 80-85% instead. Over-squeezing buyers in a boom is a rookie move; trading some margin today for cycle immunity and a higher P/E later is an elite long-term play, and Wall Street will eventually catch up. x.com
Sandisk's datacenter shipments and restrained bit-supply plan strengthen its growth case, without settling contract protection in a downturn. Management attributed roughly 60% of fiscal Q1 revenue growth to volume and 40% to price; datacenter sales rose 61% sequentially to $4.8B, supplying 88% of total growth. It retains mid-to-high-teens bit growth rather than accelerating supply. Consumer sales fell 29%, and the CFO cautioned against carrying Q2's growth rate into fiscal Q3. x.com x.com
Sandisk's fast-growing data-center revenue strengthens its case among memory names with upside. Data-center revenue rose 61% quarter over quarter; revenue of $11.03B, adjusted EPS of $49.51 and adjusted gross margin of 85.1% all exceeded estimates. For upside among Micron, Sandisk and Kioxia, Micron ranks first, then Sandisk, then Kioxia, until further guidance. x.com x.com