Wey How
Thematic Position Trader, Technology Stocks & Trend Following
Dell's AI business is broadening fast, and those fundamentals are what sustain its run to new all-time highs. Its AI customer base across neoclouds, sovereigns and enterprises has passed 6,500, with 3,300 added in the last three quarters, versus eight quarters to reach the first roughly 3,200. x.com
Dell has broken out of a three-month consolidation on great earnings and strong volume, driven by its AI PC and AI factory themes. Guided GAAP EPS was raised from about $17 to about $24, and those fundamentals set the long bias. Before the breakout, the stock held most of June's breakaway gap and washed out at its 50-day SMA without breaking its rising price structure. x.com
Dell should benefit from AI data-center construction because builders say almost every new facility runs on Dell or Super Micro servers. Sales rose 49% in the past year to $151B; Dell is 18% below its high and is an easy double from here. x.com
Dell's AI demand keeps accelerating and broadening: it booked a record $60.9 billion of AI orders this quarter and over $130 billion in 12 months, as revenue rose 58% to $47 billion and EPS 203% to $7.04. Demand spans neoclouds, sovereigns and enterprises, with AI tailwinds in traditional servers, networking and storage as agentic workflows need CPU capacity. Management sees AI at 75% of data-center demand by 2030 and a trillion-dollar-plus opportunity; DRAM and NAND remain the constraints. … Show more
Dell looks overvalued, trading about seven turns above its historical multiple range and at a premium to many AI semiconductor bottleneck names despite not providing a bottleneck solution. Michael Dell spiking the ball on the latest quarter might mark the top. x.com
Dell's AI server business is growing on a trajectory that should appeal to anyone who likes Nvidia's, driven by a massive public and private AI factory buildout with a huge number of racks still to sell. Revenue rose 58% to $47B and infrastructure revenue 89% to $31.8B. AI server orders hit a record $60.9B in the quarter and $131.7B over four quarters, with AI backlog at $95B and the pipeline multiples of that. AI customers exceed 6,500, and traditional servers and networking grew 122%. x.com … Show more
Enterprise and neocloud demand is creating a second wave of AI infrastructure spending, with tailwinds for Nvidia and Super Micro. Dell forecasts 200 GW of AI data center growth through 2030, half driven by these customers, and estimates a $1 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity over the next four years. AI servers could enter a new growth phase in 2027, with higher shipment volumes and more revenue per deployment. x.com
Dell's re-rating from hardware vendor to AI platform has largely happened, so the stock is not worth chasing at about $440, or 24-25x forward earnings after a 150% YTD gain and a 40% gap, even though the business is near-flawless. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 88% to $43.8B and full-year guidance rose about $27B to $165-169B, with AI servers up 757% and a record $51.3B backlog. Risks include AI-diluted gross margins, ballooning receivables and inventory, pull-forward demand and Dell-financed sales. … Show more
Dell is positioned at the forefront of a multi-hundred-billion-dollar AI infrastructure opportunity with one of the industry's most complete end-to-end offerings, from servers, storage and networking to enterprise software. AI server orders in its ISG infrastructure business are accelerating, partnerships with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have deepened, and global enterprise and government procurement has improved order visibility. Its long-term compounding potential could be substantial. x.com
Dell shows companies can no longer be judged by headcount, as automation and AI let it grow with far fewer people. Its workforce fell from 140,000 to 108,000 at the end of 2025 and 85,000 now, with a target of just 65,000, while revenue and margins rise. x.com
Dell is heavily overearning heading into a two-sigma melt-up, leaving the stock exposed to a reversal. x.com
Dell is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the CPU shortage, gaining share in AI servers, traditional servers, storage and PCs as demand accelerates well past supply. AI server revenue rose 757% to $16.1B with a record $51.3B backlog, and traditional servers grew 92% as agentic AI needs CPUs to run the work around GPUs. Full-year revenue guidance rose about $27B to a $167B midpoint and EPS guidance to $17.90, a rare raise. Before the earnings jump it traded at only about 22x forward earnings. … Show more
