AST SpaceMobile's ~$20B valuation prices in years of growth despite only $31M in revenue last quarter, leaving expectations vulnerable to an unwind even as the business progresses. Space communications remains attractive long term, but a sustained loss of $50.70 could deepen the correction toward $19-35; that move is not certain. Holding support and reclaiming $60-66 by month-end would improve the outlook. A 10-15% market correction could also cause a selloff without implying business failure. … Show more

AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.com 

Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com  x.com 

AST SpaceMobile is sinking with no good news expected before 2027, which even bulls accept, so a drop to $50 now looks slightly more likely than a jump to $70. It remains a great company with patent-locked technology, but executives' inability to execute is a big overhang, and the stock needs buyers fast. x.com 

SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.com 

AST SpaceMobile has solid fundamentals, with the SpaceX IPO as a catalyst. A weekly close above $92 with conviction would mark a breakout from a third flag pattern, and clearing $96-97 resistance would confirm continuation. Given the volatile macro backdrop, weakness toward $74-75, the 0.5 Fibonacci level and former channel, would be a gift. x.com 

AST SpaceMobile is losing the nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio it wanted to SpaceX. The stock fell 10.5% on nearly five times normal volume, and the chart's count is in a third wave down. If 47.57 holds, a bounce could target 68 and 74; if it breaks, the target is 31. A bounce is not yet a bottom. x.com 

AST SpaceMobile's negative fundamentals make this a time for patience. Trailing net income is -$811 million, free cash flow -$1.74 billion and EPS -$2.14; wait for a catalyst change, specifically growing earnings. x.com 

AST SpaceMobile can drift toward $65 if it holds above its $62.19 gamma flip, where dealer hedging steadies the price. The $65 call wall is a soft lid with light call interest, and past it the ceiling for the October 9 week is $75, though little positioning sits behind it. The $60 put wall is the floor, and a break below $60 ends the idea. x.com 

AST SpaceMobile was a short because messianic belief in the stock priced its business and competitive risks at zero, with a valuation completely disconnected from capital employed. A failed satellite launch sent it plunging; no one could know that in advance, but asymmetry is the point: when risks are priced at zero or below, something going wrong pays off. All else equal, the higher the price, the more wrong it is; if believers pump it back to a stupid price, it is a short again. x.com  x.com  … Show more