Joe
Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points
Memory demand growth should keep outpacing new supply for Samsung, SK hynix and Micron, even though several new supply announcements have come in and more will follow while prices stay elevated. Chinese supply will have no effect on HBM. Caution is warranted, but the stance remains bullish. x.comÂ
Samsung, SK hynix and Micron have the best setup in memory history, with almost zero chance of squandering it, because HBM demand from Nvidia, Google and AMD gives them reason to stay disciplined on supply. Massive capex announcements are partly concrete and empty cleanrooms for now; per @TheValueist, much of the spend is still in shell, cleanroom or early tool phases, while node migration and HBM mix suppress commodity bit output. The game is keeping supply just tight enough to print money. x.comÂ
Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.comÂ
Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.comÂ
More memory CapEx may yield proportionally fewer bits as HBM consumes more wafer capacity, supporting SK hynix and Samsung's pricing. Both reported double-digit quarterly DRAM and NAND price gains; Samsung targets 60-70% of mid- to long-term capacity under LTAs. SK hynix has the stronger execution record, but Samsung could benefit enormously from conventional memory without winning HBM4. If trends persist, normalized margins could rise, though memory remains cyclical. x.comÂ
Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.comÂ
Chinese memory makers YMTC and CXMT are using the AI-driven shortage to build a bigger competitive threat to Micron, Samsung and SK hynix. Per DigiTimes, both are scaling capacity with state backing to gain share; they are making inroads in PCs, and CXMT reportedly plans to ramp HBM3 later this year. The worst shortages ever seen have lifted prices only temporarily. Legacy DRAM makers face demand and supply pressure, and the market will eventually discount a far more competitive market. x.comÂ
SK hynix's stronger pricing and contracted demand support the still-favored memory duration trade. DRAM and HBM capacity is sold out through 2029, and a supply-demand imbalance is expected through 2030. More than half of 2027-28 capacity is under long-term agreements, with agreed 2027 HBM prices significantly higher year on year. Guangfa HK expects fund flows and bearish sentiment to improve after earnings. x.comÂ
SK hynix's sold-out memory capacity bodes well for Micron because it sells into the same shortage. SK hynix says its DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029; deals with 14 customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, and HBM demand is twice what it can make. x.comÂ
Memory prices look to be at their peak for SK hynix and Micron as Chinese commoditization catches up. CXMT has made HBM3E and is now only one generation from HBM4, so China will scale its own DRAM and HBM production. Over several years, supply and innovation have always caught up with demand in past cycles, and US work on memory architectures that work around HBM or use less of it is already well underway. That contradicts @jukan05's reading that CXMT's progress tightens commodity DRAM. x.com … Show more
Memory remains structurally scarce because SK hynix says conventional DRAM and HBM are practically sold out through 2029, while customers request roughly twice the HBM volume it can produce. Long-term agreements cover more than half of 2027 and 2028 capacity, and the company expects the supply-demand imbalance to persist through 2030. x.com x.comÂ
