SK hynix should rerate at least somewhat on its plan to launch a US ADR program, reported by @StockSavvyShay; the stock still feels like free money. x.com
PhotonBull
Equity Researcher, Co-Runner of Retail Club
SK hynix remains a buying opportunity, with its US ADR premium over Korean shares now at an all-time low of 32.66%. x.com x.com
SK hynix could see a sharp, explosive near-term move as a US ADR listing nears, since even catching up to Micron's valuation implies big upside. Meritz Securities expects SEC approval within June and a completed US listing possibly by mid-August. x.com
SK hynix's US listing trades at a 20% premium to Korea, hard to justify for a peak cyclical name on peak earnings whose estimates were just revised down. x.com
SK hynix's pursuit of a US ADR listing could set off a huge catch-up trade toward Micron's valuation multiples. The gap between their multiples is large, and it should shrink simply because US investors could buy SK hynix more easily, which may even weigh on Micron in the short term. A post the author replies to counters that Micron's US fabs justify part of its premium. x.com x.com
SK hynix's 'insane' earnings set up a sharp move higher in the shares. x.com
SK hynix's ADR listing drawing leveraged ETFs is peak-cycle behavior, because the juiced vehicles always arrive after the demand is already in the price. A report in the thread notes the ADRs priced at a 3% premium as Wall Street readies a wave of leveraged ETFs on what is the biggest chip listing ever. x.com
SK hynix should reprice strongly because its blowout earnings make the case that memory is structurally different now. At the current earnings pace, it would earn back its entire market cap in two years; buybacks and dividends also return cash to shareholders and add to value. x.com
SK hynix's earnings and buybacks could drive a tripling by 2027 before a re-rating, on Jonah Lupton's assumptions. Its Q3 report expects memory demand to outpace supply through 2030 as advanced processes and fab lead times constrain growth. It plans about KRW 100 trillion in FY2026 shareholder returns, including KRW 60 trillion or more in share acquisitions or cancellations; the buybacks would first reduce shares outstanding. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
SK hynix's US ADS trades at a persistent premium to its Seoul shares, so US buyers are overpaying for the same company. At today's won rate, the Seoul shares behind one ADS are worth $130.47 while the ADS trades at $186.76, a 43.1% premium. In 53 sessions since the 10 July listing the premium has never fallen below 14.8%, holding between 29% and 47% since mid-August. Arbitrage is limited because the prospectus says depositing shares for ADSs may be restricted by US and Korean law. x.com x.com … Show more
SK hynix's dividend delivers far less value to holders of its premium-priced US ADRs than buybacks would. The ADR premium destroys a third of the yield, and income taxes push the total value lost versus buybacks above 50%; the dividend decision is atrocious for US holders. x.com x.com