Theresa Perrin
Self-Directed Investor & Trader, Former Hospice Nurse
USA Rare Earth and MP Materials are primed to take off as semiconductors cool, because they are the two rare-earth stocks the US government has invested in. The government's stake in Intel showed what such backing does to a stock, and the US needs rare earth minerals. Both are worth keeping on watch. x.comÂ
US government backing and China's roughly 90% control of the global heavy-metals and rare-earth market make USA Rare Earth an easy hold. Its projected 2030 revenue is $2.6 billion, and most stocks in the basket trade at 20-30x sales. It is especially an easy hold near the log 0.786 Fibonacci level, with weekly RSI at 30. x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth's domestic production is becoming indispensable as the US and its allies build rare-earth supply chains independent of China. China controls most refining, separation, alloying and processing, and Western samarium-cobalt capacity, vital for fighter jets and missiles, is very limited. Governments will subsidize the buildout: in January 2026 the company signed a letter of intent with Commerce for a $1.6 billion package, giving the government equity. $17-20 is the buy zone. x.comÂ
MP Materials risks repeating Molycorp's boom-and-bust history, since the deposit has been a financial disaster since its discovery, and this time may not be different. @JonahLupton argues rare earth demand could double or triple, with MP earning $1 billion-plus of EBIT by 2030, and that Molycorp's failure came over a decade ago under different management. x.com x.comÂ
MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels and American Resources should benefit as rare earths become vital to the coming robotics revolution and the US has a national security incentive to break China's stranglehold at every chokepoint from mining to magnets. If robotics demand explodes, margins should rise as revenue scales, then cash flow expands as buildout capex drops. MP and USA Rare Earth are nearing scaled commercialization in the early 2030s; a buy-and-hold into the next decade. x.com … Show more
Domestic rare-earth and critical-mineral supply chains will make this stock group a generational wealth builder this year. REalloys has Army negotiations and an EXIM letter of interest; USA Rare Earth is developing a mine-to-magnet chain; MP Materials is expanding into magnets; Energy Fuels processes rare earths; and Lithium Americas is advancing Thacker Pass with GM and DOE support. REalloys paid to be included in this list. x.com x.com x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels and MP Materials are a pass for now because whale accumulation on their weekly charts is gradually decreasing. They are not a favored setup yet. x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth is the highest-upside way to play Trump's push for magnets. It targets heavy rare earths through a full-stack US supply chain, is a strategic government asset and reduces reliance on China. If it actually builds a domestic heavy rare earth and magnet supply chain, the upside could be insane. x.comÂ
Rare earths are a forgotten sector worth attention again, and USA Rare Earth is the preferred way to play it. The growing importance of critical minerals and their supply constraints will keep the theme relevant over the next several years. Rare earth stocks as a group look like they could be bottoming, with the daily RSI starting to flash a potential bullish divergence. x.com x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth posted $1.75B of cash after a Q1 beat, and Pentagon capital at that scale points to a construction schedule rather than a research grant for its first US mine-to-magnet refinery. China processes 85% of global rare earths, and terbium and dysprosium, used in EV motors and missile guidance, are not mined or refined elsewhere at scale. MP Materials' Mountain Pass mine feeds upstream ore, and Energy Fuels re-rates if USA Rare Earth proves the refinery model works. x.comÂ
MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are pulled forward by government backing and pushed by mega-cap support, setting them up to be 2026's second-biggest missed opportunity after Intel. x.comÂ
