AI embedded throughout software could bring huge future token spend to Amazon and Alphabet, whose AWS and GCP clouds host software builders and offer AI platforms. Ramp data show VC-backed firms spend 10 times more per employee on AI monthly than PE-owned and other firms, a possible leading indicator of software using more tokens relative to people. VC-driven demand is vulnerable to capital-cycle swings, but longer term incumbent software may become AI-native or be replaced. x.com 

Nvidia's CUDA retains developers, putting it among 12 stocks that could dominate the decade ahead. Nebius's GPU rental price rise signals demand; Fabrinet and Credo supply AI connectivity. DraftKings has betting scale; Microsoft has Azure and an OpenAI partnership; Figma anchors design work; Shopify powers stores. TeraWulf pivots power sites to AI leases; Constellation, the largest US nuclear operator, signs big-tech power deals; Meta spends on AI; Uber has autonomous-vehicle partnerships. x.com  … Show more

Software companies face a multi-year repricing because AI has removed the scarcity that made software valuable. For 20 years building software required engineers, letting SaaS firms charge monthly fees forever; when anyone can build a working product in a weekend with Claude, software stops being the moat. Atlassian is down 75%, HubSpot 69% and Figma 86%, and layoffs show headcount no longer scales with output. Survivors will be those with distribution, data and trust underneath. x.com 

The world's largest companies stand to benefit most from AI. Buying Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, Alphabet and Microsoft might be enough to outperform the market over the next few years. x.com 

Software stocks are regaining momentum because the consensus that AI would slow growth and cut earnings was wrong. Palantir accelerated to 92% revenue growth with 325% GAAP EPS growth, and Shopify's revenue growth accelerated to 34%. Strong growth and valuation metrics that keep improving leave little not to like. x.com  x.com 

Shopify faces a lot of risk in the AI revolution, which limits its upside at a $185 billion market cap and its current multiple. It has executed very well, and management may stay ahead so its infrastructure capitalizes on the agentic wave instead of being overrun, but that is not guaranteed. Against other plays and an already heavy software allocation, it is a candidate to offload, possibly after another chance at its all-time high. x.com 

Shopify is one of the clearest application-software examples of AI materially accelerating growth. Sell-side channel checks point to strong ongoing momentum and AI product attach rates, while Tobi keeps pushing to be first with new products and integrations. The shares are near their pandemic-bubble peak, yet still look discounted to this opportunity; the multiple is lofty, but nowhere near its 2021 level. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Software looks like a group that can lead the market higher, with many names from Palantir and ServiceNow to Zeta and MongoDB moving from late Stage 4 or Stage 1 into early Stage 2 uptrends. Sentiment is at an all-time low on fears that AI agents and chatbots will replace SaaS. AI will disrupt some areas, but many software businesses are using it to grow revenue, ship faster and expand operating leverage, and will thrive. The charts will separate survivors from the dead. x.com  x.com 

Hyperscalers' incremental return on capital is cratering, so hard spending decisions are coming. In the June quarter, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet grew LTM EBIT 20% but needed 38% more deployed capital, before token prices cratered and with much demand from non-self-sustaining OpenAI. Compute and models may become a utility-like commodity. Insiders are selling, with Jeff Bezos filing to sell $4B of Amazon stock, and Google's $25B bond deal widened hyperscaler credit spreads. x.com  x.com 

AI infrastructure, cloud and advertising monetization, critical-material demand and chipmaking technology underpin a cross-sector list of 25 stocks expected to go parabolic. The named drivers include HBM for AI data centers, custom silicon and optical networking, Netflix's ad tier, lithium for EVs, uranium for nuclear energy and copper for electrification. x.com