Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Uber's network effects could make it the app robotaxi fleets need to keep their cars fully operational. It is one of the best platforms on earth and a five-year buy at today's valuation, with opportunity too compelling to pass up despite shares falling about 25% in the past year on robotaxi fears. Bookings grew 24% last quarter and trailing free cash flow exceeded $10 billion. Waymo and Tesla could choose to bypass Uber; Waymo already runs its own app in most of its cities. x.com 

Tesla's low-cost, high-margin Cybercabs make its Robotaxi opportunity bigger than investors appreciate. ARK estimates each costs about $30K to make and generates $93K a year at roughly 68% gross margin; Tesla is not bullish enough in investors' eyes. Texas registrations show 1,080 Teslas, including 573 Cybercabs, versus 1,207 Waymos; these are registrations, not active rides. Cybercabs already outnumber Model Ys less than two months after launch. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's Cybercab can scale far faster than Waymo, which underpins its long-term potential. The Cybercab is efficient and cheap to build, and Tesla can scale it into the millions quickly with US-sourced parts, while Waymo is inefficient, expensive and very hard to scale. Riders are proud to be seen in a Cybercab rather than hiding behind tinted glass. As @michbetancourt1 notes, Tesla is also building an energy backlog that could reach revenue from 2027; quick-profit seekers miss this potential. … Show more

Uber's trips could keep growing even without a Waymo partnership because the ride-hail market may expand faster than Waymo takes share. Based on estimated inputs and Waymo's reported fleet plans, every modeled scenario has Uber trips growing, though its US trip share falls from about 73% to 69% by Q4 2028 in the target case. The model excludes take rate, pricing and Uber's AV capex. x.com 

Uber's autonomous-vehicle fears are unlikely to go away, which is why its multiples are so low. Owning Uber means betting that Tesla's Robotaxi will not be a serious threat within 24 months, when those fears could be even higher. x.com 

Uber cannot compete long term on two of the three things that win consumer markets: product quality and price. Distribution alone will not carry it, though it should keep growing for the next three years because transitions take time. That qualifies @oguzerkan's view that distribution is king and will protect Uber from Tesla and Waymo. x.com 

Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.com 

Uber is pouring money into the Minneapolis drivers' union to support its fight against Waymo and Tesla as the robotaxi era finally arrives. The StarTribune reports that Minneapolis may require driverless vehicles to have someone in the driver's seat. x.com