KawzInvests
Co-Author of Asymmetrical Bets, Photonics/Optical Cycle, AI/Defense/Space
Nvidia's need for many trillions of dollars of capacity should benefit its memory, connector and silicon photonics suppliers. Jensen Huang said Nvidia works with every memory vendor because it uses so much memory, and will work with every connector vendor and every silicon photonics company. That points to Applied Optoelectronics, Coherent, Lumentum, Ciena, Fabrinet, Micron, SanDisk and Korean equities. x.comÂ
Micron could benefit if memory demand remains strong through 2029. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he sees no sign of demand slowing by then and that "you can always use more." x.comÂ
Nvidia's capacity commitments argue against AI orders drying up soon. Its filings show mostly memory and manufacturing commitments rising from $119 billion to $279 billion in one quarter, with about $175 billion covering 2027-28. Fewer new data-center projects could reflect power, land and building bottlenecks rather than weaker demand; a mid-teens multiple still reflects a fair worry that profits may not last. x.comÂ
Memory's high margins are less durable than those of Nvidia or AMD because memory is a perfect substitute across suppliers and their chips are not. Memory margins have also risen far more than those names', so while chipmakers may eventually see some compression too, it should be smaller than in memory. x.comÂ
A memory-chip shortage lasting until 2030 is good for Nvidia. SK hynix expects that shortage and reports a 632% profit jump. x.comÂ
SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler's report of customer signals beyond fiscal 2030 adds storage to the long-duration AI hardware-demand case. He says those signals come through new-business-model partnerships; Micron and SK hynix in memory and Lumentum in photonics were already cited as signs of demand beyond 2030. x.comÂ
High-bandwidth memory supply may not keep pace with AI demand, supporting the memory makers. Anthropic's S-1 says SK hynix, Samsung and Micron are expanding capacity, but warns that large buyers or competitors could reserve much of the available output. x.comÂ
Scale-up moving to optics adds demand for optical suppliers even if new AI architectures need fewer switches. Bigger data centers and more GPUs add to that need; Jensen Huang expects future optics requirements to be several orders of magnitude above what NVIDIA ships today. This challenges the optics bear case for Lumentum, Coherent, Tower Semiconductor and Credo. x.comÂ
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.comÂ
Buyer-funded expansion at Ibiden signals a real substrate shortage, with added supply only starting in early 2028. Per an Nvidia press release quoted by paurooteri, Nvidia is providing billions upfront to reserve capacity at Ibiden's Ohno plant, aiming to triple output. Micron's customers similarly prepaid to lock memory supply. x.comÂ
AI data-center spending flows beyond GPUs and operators into networking, optics, power and cooling. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Marvell supply chips; Arista, Nokia and Credo connectivity; Applied Optoelectronics and Lumentum optics; Vistra, Constellation and Bloom power; Vertiv and Modine cooling. Meta's $140B spending this year illustrates the scale, per a commenter with whom the point is agreed. x.com x.comÂ
