Teng Yan
Founder of Tessara, AI Buildout & Supply-Chain Research
Buyer-funded expansion at Ibiden signals a real substrate shortage, with added supply only starting in early 2028. Per an Nvidia press release quoted by paurooteri, Nvidia is providing billions upfront to reserve capacity at Ibiden's Ohno plant, aiming to triple output. Micron's customers similarly prepaid to lock memory supply. x.com
Ibiden is among the cleanest asymmetries this earnings season because AI substrate pricing is reaching its profits faster than management assumed. It dominates AI server ABF substrates, with Nvidia about 29% of revenue. Almost all of May's Electronics profit guidance raise, from ¥57B to ¥75B, came from pricing, after a guide that assumed price declines; ABF film prices rose ~30% and capacity is sold out through year end. A segment margin of 23%+ would confirm it; 22% or less, it's wrong. x.com
Nvidia's co-investment supports Samsung Electro-Mechanics' substrate expansion because it expects capacity to be tight when it needs supply. Samsung Electro-Mechanics says dedicated compute and switch substrate supply to Nvidia starts this year, with double-digit annual volume growth; by 2028 Nvidia orders should take a substantial share of its package-substrate capacity. Global customers fund part of its 6.78 trillion won expansion, but new Sejong output starts in September 2028. x.com
Micron's bet on 3D DRAM over rivals' 4F2 could give it an edge as AI memory demand rises. Micron expects shortages for at least two more years: HBM per GPU rose 3.6x from H100 to B300, inference memory per server doubled in three years, and agent context grows about 30x annually. It plans further 6F2 nodes, 1-delta DRAM in 2H27 and 400-plus-layer G11 NAND in 2027; processor-stacked vHBM is targeted around 2028. If Micron is right, rivals are spending on the wrong path. Overweight Micron. x.com
Ibiden is overpriced and set to lose market share, so AT&S, Kinsus and Ajinomoto are the better substrate positions. This runs against FundaAI (@FundaAI), which argues that high-end ABF capacity is failing to keep pace with AI silicon and sees rerating room for Ibiden at about 45 times FY3/28 earnings. x.com
Hynix's sold-out memory supply supports expectations for big numbers from Micron, still trading at 5x forward earnings. Hynix says its HBM and DRAM chips are sold out until 2029 and a chip shortage is likely to continue into 2030. Big numbers and capital return are expected after Micron reports in December. x.com
High-bandwidth memory supply may not keep pace with AI demand, supporting the memory makers. Anthropic's S-1 says SK hynix, Samsung and Micron are expanding capacity, but warns that large buyers or competitors could reserve much of the available output. x.com
Micron's ordinary memory could see tighter supply because HBM consumes far more factory capacity than conventional DRAM. Meeting AI demand could thus extend Micron's opportunity beyond AI memory. x.com
Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more
SK hynix's sold-out memory capacity bodes well for Micron because it sells into the same shortage. SK hynix says its DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029; deals with 14 customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, and HBM demand is twice what it can make. x.com
IC substrates are Schmid's more relevant growth driver today because demand is already high and rising. Schmid customers Ibiden and Unimicron are expanding capacity with NVIDIA support; higher order intake supports the prospect of more equipment orders. Its balance sheet has improved, and the risk/reward looks attractive at current levels despite volatility. Glass substrates may take another one to two years to matter commercially. This is a personal assessment, not a buy recommendation. x.com … Show more
Tight memory-chip supply through 2030 is good for Micron. SK hynix expects the shortage to last that long and reports a 632% profit jump. x.com
