Nvidia's co-investment supports Samsung Electro-Mechanics' substrate expansion because it expects capacity to be tight when it needs supply. Samsung Electro-Mechanics says dedicated compute and switch substrate supply to Nvidia starts this year, with double-digit annual volume growth; by 2028 Nvidia orders should take a substantial share of its package-substrate capacity. Global customers fund part of its 6.78 trillion won expansion, but new Sejong output starts in September 2028. x.com 

Unimicron's profit leverage to rising ABF substrate prices should stay significantly positive and last longer than the market expects, even if customers absorb only part of the increases. As a high-end ABF leader, its high fixed costs and utilization leverage limit any squeeze from costlier T-glass. The T-glass bottleneck and long capacity cycles could extend the benefit for a year or two, and its high Nvidia and ASIC share adds pricing power, though execution on hikes and utilization matters. … Show more

Schmid Group is moments from dilution, with almost no room for error in its cash runway. That financial position is critical to any comparison of glass-substrate plays, even as a post the author replies to argues upstream suppliers gain pricing power after Intel's CFO called glass a margin headwind. x.com 

AMD and Nvidia face a growing capital burden from substrates without the benefit of foundry margin stacking. Each is committing $1 billion to the substrate ecosystem; AMD has also publicly committed $10 billion to its Taiwan supply chain, more than three times its Q2 net income. That capital is unavailable for R&D and product development, while their gross margins are flat or shrinking. Intel's gross margin is growing as customers prepay its foundry for substrates. x.com 

Buyer-funded expansion at Ibiden signals a real substrate shortage, with added supply only starting in early 2028. Per an Nvidia press release quoted by paurooteri, Nvidia is providing billions upfront to reserve capacity at Ibiden's Ohno plant, aiming to triple output. Micron's customers similarly prepaid to lock memory supply. x.com 

SCHMID Group's risk-reward does not yet compensate for its capital structure and competitive position, though its AI recovery is real. Up to 104 million diluted shares versus 65 million outstanding, plus €154 million net debt, put it above 60x EV/EBITDA. Ten customers make up 60% of revenue; MKS Instruments leads. It gets more defensible if orders convert as guided, convertibles shrink without new issuance, a tier-one substrate maker enters qualification and no new China export curbs hit. x.com  … Show more

Unimicron should benefit from a persistent AI ABF substrate shortage and a shift toward higher-end products. Its projected share exceeds 30% as the market reaches $13bn/$18bn in 2027/28; added capacity is expected to lift ABF revenue 66%/90%. Higher-end ABF, mSAP and LPDDR lift margins, supporting 77% EPS CAGR. Initiate Buy with a NT$1,820 target at 30x 2027 earnings. x.com 

The move from organic ABF substrates to glass is becoming a necessity for Nvidia's largest packages, and Nittobo, Schmid, LPKF and Ibiden sit at its choke points. Nittobo has a near-monopoly on low-CTE T-Glass fiber amid a shortage; LPKF's LIDE drilling and Schmid's inline systems ride US and EU sovereign AI pushes; Ibiden bridges ABF and glass core. Timing is the risk: TSMC pushed panel-level CoPoS to Q4 2030, so Rubin Ultra may use hybrid glass stiffeners, and Nittobo has already run 9x. x.com  … Show more

SCHMID Group's financials are too poor, and pilot-phase adoption does not offset that despite a small revenue increase. It may be worth another look later. x.com 

Demand for Nvidia chips remains robust, and the stock could rally to a $273 technical target, where this rally would match the last one in size. SpaceX reportedly raising $40 billion through loans and bonds to buy Nvidia chips has helped bring it close to a first-ever $6 trillion value. The multi-model signal is a mixed long. The risk is that customers are taking on heavy debt to pay, feeding Michael Burry's demand-whip theory and raising credit risk if end demand falls short. x.com