The Few Bets That Matter
Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure
Intuitive Machines and Firefly Aerospace are two faces of the same coin, so Firefly winning NASA's first rover selection is only a temporary setback for Intuitive Machines. NASA is spreading contracts across suppliers to boost competition and maximize its chances of success, so one rover award does not change either company's profile. Both are meant to succeed, and wild swings are not a broken thesis. x.com x.com
NASA's Moon-base plan shows why Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Iridium have a long way to go, as such companies will be pillars of lunar colonization. NASA's new paper describes three phases totaling about 75 landings and 215,000kg of payloads, with a target to return before 2030. It flags challenges such as communications, where Intuitive Machines already won a large contract to build the Moon's internet, and NASA is accelerating missions and contracts to beat China. x.com
Firefly Aerospace likely has pretty good risk/reward here because successful execution could reward investors. It remains very unproven in a space industry with zero margin for error, so that upside depends on execution. x.com
NASA's new Moon Base initiative is solid government demand for lunar companies such as Firefly, Intuitive Machines and Voyager. NASA picked Astrobotic, Intuitive Machines and Firefly for CLPS missions, awarding Firefly $144.2 million and Intuitive Machines $148.3 million for one lander delivery each, and the opportunities arising on the Moon keep growing. x.com
Firefly Aerospace's launch vehicle is unreliable and plagued with delays. Firefly was slated to launch the Jackal in the US military space exercise covered by @arstechnica but failed to do so, and SpaceX had to fill in. x.com
Intuitive Machines is shifting from one-time lunar deliveries to high-margin recurring revenue, which matters more than the near-term pressure from capital rotating into SpaceX's IPO. Its Q1 backlog hit a record $1.1B, giving high visibility on 2026 revenue guidance of $900M-$1B. Its NASA Near Space Network work could make lunar missions pay to use its relay network, and the Goonhilly deal adds 44+ deep-space antennas. Short interest at 26.5% of float could fuel a squeeze on contract wins. x.com
Space stocks can create generational wealth this year, and five of them can 10x. AST SpaceMobile has its direct-to-phone constellation and AT&T and Verizon deals; Rocket Lab has Electron launches, Neutron and a space-systems backlog; Firefly Aerospace has Alpha and Eclipse rockets and the Blue Ghost lander; SpaceX has Starship, Falcon, Starlink and AI compute; Intuitive Machines has NASA lunar landers and an infrastructure pipeline. All five grew trailing revenue 53% to 2,257%. x.com x.com
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Firefly, Intuitive Machines, Redwire and SpaceX are too risky to buy at today's valuations, given the potential for a cascade decline. Index-inclusion buying may keep SpaceX and sympathy names bid for months, but in another growth bear market like 2021's aftermath they could fall hard and recover slowly even if the businesses execute, and SpaceX may eventually crash the party. They remain liked, just not worth adding; Northrop Grumman is the preferred space stock. … Show more
Firefly Aerospace looks like it is in its own category among the two public launch companies, as NVIDIA Robotics highlights its work. Per NVIDIA Robotics, Firefly is integrating NVIDIA Jetson on its Elytra spacecraft to process lunar imagery on orbit, turning raw Moon data into real-time insights for its Ocula imaging service. x.com x.com x.com
Firefly Aerospace looks very attractive at about $27 a share, a $4.5B market cap, after a 53% fall since May, because a high-margin AI and data business is hiding inside the space stock. Blue Ghost 1 returned 120GB of lunar data and NASA ordered $10M more. On Blue Ghost 2, Firefly's Ocula imaging runs Nvidia Jetson in lunar orbit, the first edge AI around the moon, with SciTec software on top and a five-year Elytra mission. In-space data processing is the near-term orbital AI opportunity. x.com
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines are priced as if they had already colonized the solar system, so they look headed one way once the hype rally ends. Together they carry an $82 billion market cap on $883 million of revenue and no profits, while burning cash heavily. Reusable rockets are a cost-reduction story rather than a giant leap. Their long-term potential may be real, but that future is 20-30 years out and does not justify today's valuations. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Firefly Aerospace is growing fast across rockets, lunar landers and AI-enabled missile defense software, and it has been selected for the Golden Dome program. Q1 2026 revenue rose 45% to $80.9M, with full-year guidance of $420-450M and a $1.3B backlog. It is the only commercial company to have launched to orbit on 24-hour notice. x.com
