KawzInvests
Co-Author of Asymmetrical Bets, Photonics/Optical Cycle, AI/Defense/Space
SpaceX's confidential filing for the largest IPO in history should force fund managers who ignored space to buy in, making this exactly the wrong time to short the sector. SpaceX is seeking a $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation, with Polymarket putting a June listing at 60%. Yet AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab sit 30% below their highs, Redwire 35% and Planet Labs 15%. That fund flow has to go somewhere. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
Space stocks have lost their catalyst now that SpaceX is public. For a year the basket was a bet on when the SpaceX IPO would happen; it listed Friday, up 19% at $2.1 trillion, the biggest IPO in history, and the air came out. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Satellogic and BlackSky, green for months, have all flipped to SuperTrend downtrends. That is not the sector breaking but buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab completing its $1.94 billion ATM to fund the Iridium deal removes an overhang that likely suppressed the whole space sector. As the lead high-beta space name, its ATM selling in a thin, risk-off market was magnified by algos into AST SpaceMobile and peers; that pressure should now ease. After nearly four months of losses from the SpaceX IPO, macro risk-off, low summer liquidity and share sales, a base is starting to form. Delays or macro risk could still weigh. x.com x.com x.comÂ
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks lost expected support when the S&P committee rejected fast-tracking SpaceX into the index, removing forced passive buying, while funds sell tech to raise cash for next Friday's SpaceX IPO. Rocket Lab's $150 looks like the top, with a likely lower high, perhaps dropping to $100 on Monday before rebounding to $120-130. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
Listed space stocks such as Satellogic, BlackSky, Voyager, Redwire, Intuitive Machines, Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are the plays ahead of the SpaceX IPO. AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are favorites and still look healthy on the charts despite recent pullbacks. @sunxliao notes the group ranges from about $0.7B to $39B in market cap versus a roughly $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO valuation, a gap he expects to deliver big returns in coming months. x.comÂ
Space stocks such as Redwire and AST SpaceMobile have run too far on retail chasing and look like shorts into the SpaceX IPO. Government contracts are already priced in, and the stocks price years ahead while ignoring execution risk. The SpaceX IPO should absorb more liquidity as institutions sell the news, leaving retail holding the bag. AST SpaceMobile is the second-biggest space short after EchoStar; sell space stocks before IPO day, though the broader market can stay steady through July. … Show more
The orbital economy is far too large for only SpaceX to win, making space stocks the easiest 100x opportunity yet. By 2050-2070, every business on Earth could have a counterpart in space; some public companies may fail, but the few winners could create enormous wealth. The easy money is over, so AST SpaceMobile, Firefly Aerospace, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, MDA Space and SpaceX belong in a separate retirement account that is never traded, not a price-action trade. x.comÂ
