TacticzHazel
Energy-Market Analyst, Long-Term Fundamental Investing
Intel may now be too expensive after going from the worst semiconductor play to one of the best in under a year, as an expected return to profitability came with a multiple rerating on top. With earnings still compressed, a three-year forward view fits better, and on that basis a 2028 P/E of 50, cited in a post the author replies to, is too high. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel looks too expensive at roughly 50 times 2028 earnings. A three-year forward P/E is the right lens, since Intel is not investing aggressively or pulling every lever for exceptional revenue growth, unlike AMD or Nvidia. @TacticzH notes Intel went from the worst semiconductor play to one of the best in under a year, as it expects to make money again and got a multiple rerating on top. x.com x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
Intel's data-center and foundry growth could outlast its PC-driven weak guidance. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.3bn and foundry revenue rose 58%, but PCs still account for about half the business and management expects their slowdown through at least the first half of next year. Q4 revenue and margin guidance disappointed, and $0.17 of quarterly EPS came from a mark-to-market gain. The selloff prices in the PC problem, not the turnaround. Overweight; $130 target. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's high valuation is hard to justify while its foundry turnaround remains unproven. At about 59x forward earnings, nearly three times TSMC's 19x, Intel has slower projected revenue growth; its foundry lost $2.09 billion in Q2 2026, while TSMC's Q3 operating margin was 58.7%. A politician's stock purchase alone does not make Intel a buy. x.com x.comÂ
Intel looks expensive even against sales despite its earlier revenue recovery: at 10x sales versus roughly 5x for chipmakers, the screen puts fair value at $40.45-$51.48 against $104.70. This adds a sales-based valuation warning to the prior earnings concern; it is a levels-only comparison using reported figures, not fundamental diligence. x.comÂ
Intel's fading options activity at $70 and $80, alongside a strong $100 node, improves its near-term setup. The stock bounced at its 200-day average alongside SMH and SOXX, supporting a $98-100 target this week; $110 calls are further out and $130 calls are for November-December. Dealers seem to have moved their hedges, though $80 may still come after October 30 earnings. The share target remains $140. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's valuation remains stretched even on improving earnings: it is expected to earn $6B in net income in 2026, yet its forward P/E is still close to 100. Per Charlie Bilello, Intel now trades above 11x sales, its highest since 2000, versus under 2x a year ago, after losing $3.4B over the last year. x.comÂ
Intel's beat-and-raise does not justify its bloated valuation. Even if Intel someday earned $5 a share, its current market cap would still put it at about 100 times earnings. x.com x.comÂ
AMD and Intel look expensive only if agentic AI fails to accelerate CPU demand, and sell-side estimates probably do not yet capture all of that acceleration. AMD trades at 58x and Intel at 68x NTM EPS, with the sell side modeling EPS CAGRs through CY2029 of 66% and 82%. Beating CY2029 estimates of $31.50 and $4.75 by 30-40% would lift those CAGRs to about 78% and 97%. Despite frothy multiples, that EPS growth is hard to argue with. x.comÂ
Intel's weak guidance undermines the turnaround bet. The whole turnaround now looks like a scam, though the view will be reassessed later. x.com x.comÂ
