Cole
Momentum Stock & Options Trading, Public Trading Journal
Intel's fading options activity at $70 and $80, alongside a strong $100 node, improves its near-term setup. The stock bounced at its 200-day average alongside SMH and SOXX, supporting a $98-100 target this week; $110 calls are further out and $130 calls are for November-December. Dealers seem to have moved their hedges, though $80 may still come after October 30 earnings. The share target remains $140. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's setup points higher, with strong gamma support near $95 and $100 as the main call wall and short-term magnet. Holding above 100 targets 103-105, then 110, where gamma is building quickly. The chart shows higher lows and higher highs, a MACD golden cross and a reclaim of the 20-day EMA. Goldman Sachs' Communacopia conference, where tech firms will update on AI capex and inference demand, is a potential short-term catalyst for chips. x.comÂ
Intel's data-center and foundry growth could outlast its PC-driven weak guidance. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.3bn and foundry revenue rose 58%, but PCs still account for about half the business and management expects their slowdown through at least the first half of next year. Q4 revenue and margin guidance disappointed, and $0.17 of quarterly EPS came from a mark-to-market gain. The selloff prices in the PC problem, not the turnaround. Overweight; $130 target. x.com x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
Intel drew heavy bullish options flow and sentiment, and the $97.50 level, the strongest node on the options heatmap, has acted as support. The stock bounced cleanly from $97.50, and holding that level is the key to more upside. Flagged flow orders often see 30-50% drawdowns before moving the right way. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Server CPU demand amid AI buildouts gives Intel's upcoming Q3 earnings a fundamental role in its bounce setup. The market expects roughly $16.5 billion in revenue; a potential triple bottom at $87 coincides with the 200 EMA, making a decent bounce highly likely from here. JPMorgan upgraded Intel from Underweight to Neutral, citing better execution and valuation. Losing the 200 EMA would invalidate the pattern and be a significant bearish signal. x.comÂ
Intel's solid miss fits a longstanding negative view of the stock. ZeroHedge reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $0.25 versus $0.45 expected and revenue guidance of $15 billion to $16 billion versus $17.29 billion expected. x.comÂ
Intel's $95 level should act as a floor after its capital raise drew heavy institutional demand. It raised about $15-20B around $95 a share with reported demand above $100B, so serious buying should reappear if the stock returns there. Intel has nearly tripled this year and sentiment has changed, but no scheduled catalyst over the next three weeks looks likely to push it another 15-20%, short of a surprise such as a major new foundry customer. x.com x.comÂ
Intel is being bought on the dip by institutions loading up, and could reach all-time highs soon. x.comÂ
Intel's weak guidance undermines the turnaround bet. The whole turnaround now looks like a scam, though the view will be reassessed later. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's chart points to a pending breakout, with its stochastic about as low as it can get and a clean test of the key support-resistance flip inside a pennant or flag pattern. Heavy call flow today, all calls in the last 20 minutes, is a good sign after Friday. x.com x.comÂ
