Dr. Stoxx
Stock Trader & Author, Oxford DPhil, Trading Education
Intel's fading options activity at $70 and $80, alongside a strong $100 node, improves its near-term setup. The stock bounced at its 200-day average alongside SMH and SOXX, supporting a $98-100 target this week; $110 calls are further out and $130 calls are for November-December. Dealers seem to have moved their hedges, though $80 may still come after October 30 earnings. The share target remains $140. x.com x.comÂ
Intel is being bought on the dip by institutions loading up, and could reach all-time highs soon. x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
Intel has potential for a move higher as a likely sympathy play on Nvidia's earnings, backed by heavy buying and call flow. It posted its first daily closes above the 50-day average since early July, an EMA crossover is possible, and huge buy volume shows on the weekly chart. A full reclaim of the weekly 9 average would confirm the springboard setup; the call may be early. x.com x.comÂ
Server CPU demand amid AI buildouts gives Intel's upcoming Q3 earnings a fundamental role in its bounce setup. The market expects roughly $16.5 billion in revenue; a potential triple bottom at $87 coincides with the 200 EMA, making a decent bounce highly likely from here. JPMorgan upgraded Intel from Underweight to Neutral, citing better execution and valuation. Losing the 200 EMA would invalidate the pattern and be a significant bearish signal. x.comÂ
The bounce in semiconductors, including AMD, Micron and Intel, looks like a retail trap and exit liquidity rather than a durable move. The AI and semiconductor bull cycle is still in play, but a redistribution back down to weekly fair value looks next, after which big money should buy again. This is not a call to short. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's CEO just bought $10M of stock at $95, a whale worth following. x.comÂ
Intel drew heavy bullish options flow and sentiment, and the $97.50 level, the strongest node on the options heatmap, has acted as support. The stock bounced cleanly from $97.50, and holding that level is the key to more upside. Flagged flow orders often see 30-50% drawdowns before moving the right way. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel is overvalued after running up about 5x from $20, with more capex, low operating margins and a run-up driven largely by Trump's promotion rather than fundamentals. TSMC earns over 30% operating margins and is ahead of schedule in Arizona, so Intel has no US fab monopoly. Trump leaves office in two years, and these fabs are unlikely to meaningfully improve on existing 2nm yields. It could still be a great trade. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel shows clear, continued institutional buying that points to further gains. After earnings it gapped to highs not seen in nearly 30 years on its largest daily dollar buy volume ever, then set new records for buy volume last week and again this week. Following that smart money, another 15% move would be no surprise. x.comÂ